NBA Draft Lottery 2017: Detroit Pistons face long odds
By Zac Snyder
The Detroit Pistons have a shot at the first overall pick through the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery, but the chances of hitting big are small.
The Detroit Pistons find themselves back in the NBA Draft Lottery after just one year in the playoffs. That gives them a shot at landing the first overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, but not much of one.
The NBA Draft Lottery puts the first three picks of the draft up for grabs. While every team enters the lottery with a chance at securing a top three pick, odds are far greater for teams that finished with the worst records than for teams that were closer to a playoff berth. After the top three are selected by ping pong ball combination, the teams not in the top three fill picks 4-14 in reverse standings order.
After finishing with the 12th-worst record in the league, the Pistons would hold the 12th pick in the 2017 NBA Draft if all falls according to odds. If they get lucky, they would jump into one of the top three picks. If they get really unlucky, they would get jumped by one or both of the teams behind them, That means the Pistons could pick first, second, third, 12th, 13th or 14th in next month’s draft. Picks 4-11 are not possibilities.
Per numbers published on Celtics.com, the Pistons’ have the following odds to end up in the following positions:
1: 0.7%
2: 0.8%
3: 1.0%
12: 93.5%
13: 3.9%
14: 0.0% (this does not mean this is not possible, see below)
That makes for just a 2.5% chance the Pistons break into the top three. If they don’t, they will pick 12th or worse depending on if the Nuggets or Heat catch the lucky break to move up. The odds of that happening are just 2.2% and 1.8% respectively.
Winning the draft lottery with just a 0.7% chance at the top pick would break the current record for longest odds to hit. That distinction belongs to the Orlando Magic in 1993 to win the lottery despite just a 1.52% chance of that happening.
The Lloyd Christmases of the world will hold fast to the fact the Pistons have a chance at a top three pick. The pessimist will note the Pistons are actually more likely to move down than up. Most likely, the Pistons’ draft cup will be equal parts full and empty, with them ending up with the 12th overall pick.
While the numbers above show a 0.0% chance the Pistons end up with the 14th pick, it is actually possible. Since it would require both the Nuggets and Heat getting a top three pick, the odds are less than 0.04%, rounding to 0.0% with the data presented with just a single decimal point.
Next: Ranking Lions draft class by rookie year impact
The 2017 NBA Draft takes place on Tuesday night, airing on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET.