NFL draft season produces a lot of times and measurements. Knowing which metrics matter can help you get a clearer picture of a player. I’ll use these metrics to identify defensive backs that the Detroit Lions should target in the upcoming NFL draft.
When trying to predict how Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn will approach the upcoming NFL draft, I believe we need to look at his experience, as well as what he’s said publicly. Coming from New England, Quinn has been around head coach and general manager Bill Belichick for the last fifteen years. Quinn credits Belichick as a major influence in his approach to football. Publicly, Quinn has said he will look to add players to the Lions roster that fit with this staff and what they look for in a player.
First let’s look at how he’s been influenced. Bill Belichick has publicly stated that the combine isn’t that important and that he doesn’t put much value in it. Former New England front office staffers have confirmed that this is true of Belichick, and that he only uses combine data as tie-breakers for players with similar grades. That being said, he, like most general managers, he is prone to tendencies. The biggest trend in the New England Patriot’s draft history, is that they favor players with high success in the 3-cone drill. This especially true with how New England views defensive backs (cornerbacks and safeties).
The “3-cone” is a NFL combine drill in which a player follows a path through 3 cones in an “L” shape. This is a timed drill that is designed to test a player’s agility, quickness, flexibility when changing direction, and body control. Preferred scores vary depending on position. According to the statistical website Mock Draftable , the average time for cornerbacks is 6.92, free safeties is 6.97, and strong safeties is 7.0. The Patriot’s use a benchmark is 6.92 for all defensive backs.
During his tenure in New England, Belichick has drafted 15 cornerbacks, with 14 of them having a 3-cone under seven seconds. He selected two defensive backs in last year’s draft, strong safety Jordan Richards in the second round, and cornerback Darryl Roberts in the seventh. Richards ran his 3-cone in 6.74 seconds and Roberts ran his in 6.66 seconds. In the 2015 combine, the fastest 3-cone was run by cornerback Justin Coleman with a time of 6.61. He was not drafted but is now on New England’s practice squad.
Another combine drill that seems to have a benchmark in New England is the “Vertical Jump”. The vertical jump asks a player to jump vertically from a standing position as high as they can. This drill is designed to test a player’s ability to explode using power generated by their leg muscles. Of the 15 cornerbacks drafted by New England, 13 have achieved a vertical jump of 35 inches or more.
When looking at the defensive backs drafted by the Detroit Lions during this coaching staff’s tenure, it is a relatively small sample size. Even in this small pool of players, like in New England, they also have comparable traits in specific measurable areas. For example, the Lions defensive backs all have a vertical jump of 34.5, only ½ inch under New England’s benchmark.
Another area where the Lions defensive backs are comparable is in the 20 yard shuttle, often referred to as the short shuttle. The short shuttle is a similar drill to the 3-cone in that it is designed to measure agility, explosion, and body control. But while the 3-cone measures these skills with a focus on quickness, the short shuttle’s focus in on speed. The defensive backs drafted by the Lions have short shuttle runs of 4.21 or faster.
The final area in which the Detroit Lions defensive backs have a common measurable is in the bench press. The bench press is a test of how many times a player can bench press 225 pounds. This tests a players upper body strength and endurance. This is not considered a critical test for defensive backs but there is a pattern among the Lions defensive backs. Each player completed a minimum of 14 repetitions in this drill.
So if we look at the patterns established in New England and in Detroit we can get an idea of which players in the upcoming draft are likely to be on Bob Quinn’s draft board.
The benchmarks:
- 3-cone drill = 6.92 and under
- Vertical Jump = 34.5 minimum
- Short Shuttle = 4.21 and under
- Bench Press = 14 minimum
In the next slide, I will look at players who have tested within these benchmarks and have also been given a draftable grade by CBS sports.
Next: Which players meet the benchmarks?
Let’s start with 3-cone drill, we are looking for run of 6.92 seconds or under
- William Jackson III, Houston (Projected round 1 or 2) 6.86
- Jalen Mills, LSU (2-3) 6.86
- Justin Simmons, Boston College (5-6) 6.58
- Cyrus Jones, Alabama (3-4) 6.71
- Sean Davis, Maryland (4-5) 6.64
- James Bradberry, Samford (5) 6.91
- Tavon Young, Temple (5) 6.8
- Morgan Burns, Kansas State (5) 6.6
- Ken Crawley, Colorado (5-6) 6.84
- Jordan Lucas, Penn State (6) 6.78
- Ryan Smith, North Carolina Central (7) 6.88
- Jordan Lomax, Iowa (7) 6.82
According to CBS Sports there are 40 cornerbacks and 30 safeties with draftable grades. Of those 70, only 12 are able to achieve the 6.92 minimum or faster. Side note: the fact that CBS has Justin Simmons ranked as going in the 5th or 6th round is bordering on criminal. This is a kid who is easily being underrated by them.
Next benchmark Vertical Jump, 34.5 inches and over
- William Jackson III, Houston (1-2) did not attempt
- Jalen Mills, LSU (Rd 2-3) 37
- Justin Simmons, Boston College (5-6) 40
- Cyrus Jones, Alabama (3-4) 33
- Sean Davis, Maryland (4-5) 37.5
- James Bradberry, Samford (5) 36
- Tavon Young, Temple (5) 34.5
- Morgan Burns, Kansas State (5) 32
- Ken Crawley, Colorado (5-6) 36.5
- Jordan Lucas, Penn State (6) 38
- Ryan Smith, North Carolina Central (7) 36
- Jordan Lomax, Iowa (7) 38.5
We lose two players here, Cyrus Jones and Morgan Burns. Remember, this wouldn’t necessarily take these players off the Lions board, but for the purpose of this exercise they don’t qualify and are removed. On Williams Jackson’s “Did not attempt”, I am giving him a pass on this round because we don’t know what he is capable of jumping.
- Next benchmark Short Shuttle, 4.21 seconds or under
- William Jackson III, Houston (1-2) 4.29
- Jalen Mills, LSU (Rd 2-3) 4.0
- Justin Simmons, Boston College (5-6) 3.85
- Sean Davis, Maryland (4-5) 3.97
- James Bradberry, Samford (5) 4.21
- Tavon Young, Temple (5) 3.93
- Ken Crawley, Colorado (5-6) 4.4
- Jordan Lucas, Penn State (6) 4.21
- Ryan Smith, North Carolina Central (7) 4.09
- Jordan Lomax, Iowa (7) 4.15
We lose another two, including William Jackson who got a pass last round.
Next benchmark Bench Press, min. of 14 reps
- Jalen Mills, LSU (Rd 2-3) 16
- Justin Simmons, Boston College (5-6) 16
- Sean Davis, Maryland (4-5) 21
- James Bradberry, Samford (5) 16
- Tavon Young, Temple (5) 13
- Jordan Lucas, Penn State (6) did not attempt
- Ryan Smith, North Carolina Central (7) 18
- Jordan Lomax, Iowa (7) 9
Two more leave, and like in the previous round I give a pass to Lucas who was not able to attempt the drill. Tavon Young was only one repetition away from moving to the final round.
On the next slide, I will add one more parameter and then discuss the players who meet all the benchmarks.
Next: Who makes meets all the benchmarks?
The final benchmark is not a measurable metric. It is based on contact established with the Detroit Lions. A private workout or interview isn’t an end all be all of whether or not a player will be drafted by a team. Keep in mind though, that the Lions are everywhere this year, and if you’re not on their interview list, there appears to be a reason for it.
Final benchmark 3-cone Vert SS Bench Interview
- Jalen Mills, LSU (Rd 2-3) 6.86 37 4.0 16 No
- Justin Simmons, Boston College (5-6) 6.58 40 3.85 16 Yes
- Sean Davis, Maryland (4-5) 6.64 37.5 3.97 21 Yes
- James Bradberry, Samford (5) 6.91 36 4.21 16 Yes
- Jordan Lucas, Penn State (6) 6.78 38 4.21 Injury No
- Ryan Smith, North Carolina Central (7) 6.88 36 4.09 18 Yes
Of the six remaining players the Lions have worked out or interviewed four of them (Side Note: Tavon Young was also interviewed by the Lions at his Pro Day, one more bench press repetition and he’d be on this list).
The crown jewel of this list is Safety Justin Simmons. He has had contact with the Detroit Lions in three different venues: East West Shrine Game, Combine, and at Boston College’s pro day. He appears to be the highest rated player on their draft board, and as I mentioned it earlier, he is a candidate to be drafted on day two.
Simmons has experience at free safety and cornerback but projects to either safety position in the NFL. Simmons had the fastest agility scores of all the defensive backs at this year’s NFL combine. I recommend checking out, the SideLion Report’s draft guru Jeff Risdon’s breakdown of him, here.
Maryland’s Sean Davis, like Simmons, is a safety who has experience playing cornerback. The Lions met with him both at the Senior Bowl and in a private workout after his pro day. NE Patriots Draft did a breakdown of his ability, here.
The Lions established a connection with cornerback James Bradberry at Samford’s pro day. For an evaluation on Bradberry, I’ve turned to another FanSided site, the Still Curtain. The Steelers based website evaluation can be found, here.
The Lions defensive backs coach Tony Oden made his way to North Carolina Central’s pro day to spend some time with cornerback Ryan Smith. Smith is a rising player who is more likely a mid-day three pick instead of the 7th CBS has him graded at. A Panthers fansite, took a closer look at Smith, here.
Next: Lions Running Back Targets in 2016 Draft
One final note for what it’s worth, the Patriots, who have a need at cornerback, have had an interview and/or workout with both Bradberry and Smith.