The Detroit Lions brought in a ten-player class in the 2016 NFL Draft, but who is most likely to contribute early? Here are all ten ranked.
The Detroit Lions have their ten-player class from the 2016 NFL Draft plus a number of undrafted players in town for rookie minicamp this weekend as the team gets their first look at the newest Lions.
All are taking the field as professionals for the first time but they come in very different situations. The ten players drafted by the Lions last weekend have an advantage but nothing, aside from some money, is guaranteed.
Some will have the opportunity and ability to make an impact right away. Others may have to wait a year or two before having much impact on the team while still others may never make an impact for the Lions.
With that in mind, here are all ten of the Lions’ 2016 draft picks ranked by the expected contribution each will make as rookies.
Next: Number 10
10. Dwayne Washington
The least-likely Lions draft pick to contribute during the 2016 season happens to be their last pick, but not only for that reason. Washington faces the longest odds to even make the team, likely having to beat out at least two of Stevan Ridley, Zach Zenner and George Winn to make the final 53-man roster.
Even if he does make the team, Washington will be buried on the depth chart with few touches coming his way. With the toughest projected path to a roster spot, Washington is an easy choice to have the least impact in 2016.
Best-case scenario: Shows enough potential on offense and special teams in training camp to warrant a roster spot.
Worst-case scenario: Doesn’t make it out of training camp and the Lions don’t bring him back on the practice squad.
Next: Number 9
9. Jake Rudock
There is obviously a lot the Lions like about Rudock considering the pick started a mini run on quarterbacks in the sixth round rather than as a reaction to a run on quarterbacks. That being said, Rudock is probably the least likely to make the final roster besides Dwayne Washington as he’ll have to overcome Dan Orlovsky or at least show enough to warrant carrying a third quarterback on the 53-man roster.
As with any backup quarterback, the hope is that any impact he has is in the meeting room rather than on the field anyway. A backup quarterback making an impact on the field means something has gone wrong.
Best-case scenario: Carries the progression he made under Jim Harbaugh through training camp to displace Dan Orlovsky as the primary backup quarterback.
Worst-case scenario: Doesn’t earn a roster spot out of training camp but is signed to the practice squad to keep a third quarterback in the room.
Next: Number 8
8. Joe Dahl
This was the “oh snap, they’re serious about the offensive line” pick but while Dahl is a nice pick to add to the mix, his best potential to have an impact comes later than 2016. He brings versatility with the ability to play tackle or guard but Dahl figures to be behind a list of players for playing time at either position this season.
Best-case scenario: Comes in and is the versatile depth lineman the Lions hoped for in making him one of their two fifth round picks, letting the Lions keep their options open as the offensive line makeover continues.
Worst-case scenario: Doesn’t show as much versatility as thought in training camp and gets pigeon-holed in as depth at just one position, drawing into question his long-term status with the team.
Next: Number 7
7. Anthony Zettel
While I would peg Anthony Zettel’s potential for long-term impact below Joe Dahl, he checks in a spot above in these rankings with just next season in mind. He first has to make the team then fight for a spot on the gameday active roster but there is a path to playing time.
If Zettel can make good on the pro level the versatility the Lions liked in him, he has the potential to see the field as a rookie behind Devin Taylor at defensive end and moving inside on pass rushing downs. His ability to have an impact as a rookie maxes out as a rotational/situational guy, but he could contribute early.
Best-case scenario: Makes a smooth transition from college defensive tackle to closed end with the Lions to be a competent backup to Devin Taylor.
Worst-case scenario: Doesn’t make it out of training camp and the Lions don’t bring him back on the practice squad.
Next: Number 6
6. Antwione Williams
Like Zettel, Antwione Williams has to fight for a roster spot and gameday active status but has a chance to see the field as a rookie. Unlike Zettel, Williams doesn’t figure to take many, if any, snaps away from other linebackers on the roster, but he should get a long look in training camp as a guy who can make an impact on special teams.
Playing time on defense as a rookie will be a bonus (or an indication of big problems with the guys ahead of him on the depth chart), but playing time on kick and punt units is within reach.
Best-case scenario: Turns into a special teams standout during his rookie year with good reports coming out of practice about his development to contribute on defense down the line.
Worst-case scenario: Limited contributions as a rookie and doesn’t give confidence he can earn snaps at linebacker in the future.
Next: Number 5
5. Jimmy Landes
Yes, technically Jimmy Landes still has to beat Don Muhlbach for the long snapper job but I have a hard time believing the Lions would use a draft pick like this unless they were confident he would.
With the expectation that Landes is the team’s long snapper, he is set up to have an impact as a rookie as a key piece of every punt and field goal attempt. I still don’t love the pick and wouldn’t use a draft pick on a long snapper myself, but there will be teams that get less out of a sixth-round pick as long as Landes does end up with the job.
Best-case scenario: Beats out Don Muhlbach for the long snapper job by the time first cuts arrive and that’s the last time we hear his name because he does his job without incident.
Worst-case scenario: Doesn’t make the team and ends up as nothing more than an answer to an obscure Lions trivia question. However, it could be argued an even worse case is he does beat out Don Muhlbach but turns out to be the long snapper version of Nate Freese.
Next: Number 4
4. Miles Killebrew
I see Miles Killebrew’s situation in much the same way as I explained in the section about Antwione Williams.
The advantages Killebrew has over Williams is that his draft position leaves little doubt about Killebrew’s status for the 53-man roster and his position on the depth chart will provide a clearer path to playing time on defense.
But like Williams, Killebrew’s best chance for early impact comes on special teams while he waits for opportunities on defense.
Best-case scenario: Stands out on special teams early and earns significant playing time at strong safety as the season progresses.
Worst-case scenario: Doesn’t see the field on defense and is a quiet contributor on special teams.
Next: Number 3
3. A’Shawn Robinson
There are some players already on the roster that A’Shawn Robinson will have to compete with for playing time but his projection for rookie-year impact is probably as safe as any other member of the draft class. There is no expectation that Robinson should or will come in and stake claim to a starting spot at defensive tackle. Instead, he’ll be expected to come in and provide depth and a contribute as a cog in the Lions’ defensive tackle rotation.
What remains to be seen is exactly how much playing time he earns as a rookie. That could be a handful of snaps per game or it could be fifty snaps per game.
Best-case scenario: Is a solid rotational guy as a rookie and inspires confidence to ease fears about defensive tackle contracts that expire at the end of 2016.
Worst-case scenario: Plays some as a rookie but is generally lost in the shuffle of the rotation without standing out in a meaningful way.
Next: Number 2
2. Graham Glasgow
Ranking second for impact during his rookie season presupposes that Graham Glasgow will beat out Travis Swanson for the starting center job. If that doesn’t happen, Glasgow drops a few places on this list. But as one of the few draft picks that has the opportunity to earn a starting job right away, Glasgow has a higher ceiling for contributing as a rookie.
I expect there will legitimately be an open battle between Glasgow and Swanson during training camp but using a third-round pick on Glasgow says a lot about how the Lions view both Glasgow and Swanson and the center position overall.
Best-case scenario: Quickly beats out Travis Swanson for the starting center job in training camp and shows himself to be a clear upgrade early and throughout the season.
Worst-case scenario: Is quickly beaten out by Travis Swanson for the starting center job and remains the backup center throughout the season.
Next: Number 1
1. Taylor Decker
The obvious choice for the top impact next season, Taylor Decker is the Lions’ only 2016 draft choice who can be immediately penciled in as a starter. That will probably be at right tackle but the Lions’ public comments have left open the possibility of Decker playing on the left side right away.
Whether on the right or left, Decker is all but guaranteed to play major snaps on offense, with only injury likely to hold back him ability to have an impact as a rookie.
Best-case scenario: Proves at least Riley Reiff‘s equal to earn the starting left tackle job as a rookie.
Worst-case scenario: Starts at right tackle but plays at a level that makes some wonder if his starting spot is due to draft status and to gain experience more than because of performance.