Detroit Lions: Can Matthew Stafford Succeed in 2016?

Calvin Johnson has retired and Jim Bob Cooter is implementing a new offensive scheme. Will Matthew Stafford be able to succeed with these changes?

Before we look forward, we must look back

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford had arguably his best year as a professional in 2015. Mike Payton of Pride of Detroit wrote up a nice piece comparing Stafford’s 2011 & 2015 seasons.

Stafford completed 398 passes on 592 attempts for an overall completion percentage of 67.2%.

Not only was he setting team and league completion records, he was also efficient in the right areas. Bryce Rossler of The Detroit Lions Podcast posted an article on Stafford’s “Red Zone” efficiency. Bryce points out that while Stafford’s overall season completion rate was impressive enough, inside the 20 yard line it got even better.

Stafford’s completion percentage inside the 20 was 65.75%, the best in the league. Inside the 10 yard line Stafford’s completion rate jumps to an astounding 75%. According to Bryce’s numbers, “Stafford was almost a full 20% more accurate than his peers inside the ten”.

So in a year with such a high rate of completions, how did Stafford distribute them?

The most noticeable stat to people outside of Detroit is that Calvin Johnson was only targeted 23.7% of the time. This has become an all to common narrative for the national writers to say that all Stafford does it throw it up to Calvin.

Don’t get me wrong, Calvin Johnson is a Hall of Fame wide receiver and he impacted the game beyond targets and receptions, but it’s disrespectful to the rest of the Lions skill players to say they can’t function without him.

Next: Joe Lombardi vs. Jim Bob Cooter

Joe Lombardi vs Jim Bob Cooter

When Martha Ford fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi after week seven, Jim Caldwell promoted then quarterback coach Jim Bob Cooter to replace him. In week eight, the Lions traveled to London to face the Kansas City Chiefs. Between travel and organizational distractions, Cooter was limited in the amount of plays he could introduce and for the most part used Lombardi’s offensive playbook. It predictably was not effective.

The following week was the Lions bye and Cooter was able to incorporate more plays and introduced a new philosophy into the Lions offense. The results were promising as Stafford’s already solid numbers improved, and we saw a shift in the skill players production.

When breaking down the numbers, I am not assigning blame for week eight to either Lombardi or Cooter because of the extenuating circumstances surrounding that game. With that being said, lets take a closer look at Stafford’s production under each coordinator.

So we see that under Jim Bob Cooter, Stafford saw an uptick in his numbers across the board, the biggest variations coming in his completion percentage (up 4.98%), touchdowns (increased .67 more per game) and interceptions (reduced by 1.04 per game).

The same increase in production wasn’t as true for all the skill players, but as you can see from the chart below, there were clear preferences in players who could execute his game plan.

Right off the bat, Golden Tate’s production saw a much higher level of success (an increase of 24.5%) with Jim Bob Cooter as the offensive coordinator. Other skill players saw subtle changes, Calvin Johnson’s numbers took a slight drop, as did Eric Ebron’s, while Theo Riddick saw a slight increase in his.

Ameer Abdullah saw his consistency take a big jump while Joique Bell was still a productive receiving running back despite a slight decline. Lance Moore saw his targets cut by 1/3, losing most of them to TJ Jones, and the remaining players were about the same.

Next: Looking forward to life without Calvin

Looking forward, life without Calvin

If you have read most national sports publications you’ll find few who have any faith in the Lions now that Calvin Johnson has retired. But fear not Lions fans, life isn’t as grim as they would lead you to believe.

Again, don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to be disrespectful to Calvin Johnson, he is amazing, but the offense will change and move forward without him, it has no choice. Will it be more difficult, of course, but if we examine the charts closely we can find reasons for optimism.

There will be a new scheme under Jim Bob Cooter. I expect it to be very similar to what we saw in the second half of last season. With an off-season to implement more components there is bound to be an expansion in several areas.

Marvin Jones was brought in along with several veteran slot receivers to help add depth in the areas Cooter deems valuable. Marvin Jones saw 20.4% of Cincinnati’s targets last season and accounted for 19.5% of their receiving production. If Jones can, at a minimum, replicate those numbers in Detroit, he will eat up a huge chunk of lost production.

I also expect Eric Ebron to see an increase in targets as he will attempt to clear out the middle of the field for the quicker players who will be running routes underneath him.

Jim Bob Cooter’s relationship with Matthew Stafford will be paramount. In Lombardi’s system, Stafford was asked to read and react on pre-snap cues and execute the designed play. With Cooter, you saw Stafford operate with less restrictive parameters and he was allowed to freelance more often.

Stafford has a gunslinger mentality and Cooter embraces that. While most plays will be designed to be quick in nature, Stafford will have the freedom to improvise and unleash the deep ball when he has the opportunity.

Next: Comparing the first drafts of Bob Quinn and Martin Mayhew

While this post was focused on the quarterback and those who receive his passes, I recognize that there are still questions surrounding the offensive line and the running game. Look for a future post addressing these issues as they are essential to the Lions success.