Predicting how the Detroit Lions’ 2016 season will play out by picking each game on the team’s schedule as a win or a loss.
It’s the schedule game. You play it, I play it, You know the game – that’s a win, that’s a loss, that’s a loss, etc. Perhaps you went through and made an early season record prediction for the Detroit Lions when the schedule was announced in April.
With the preseason done and a “final” roster in place, it’s time to go through for real to project how the Lions might do this season.
Will it be a return to the 11-5 and playoff appearance of 2014? A continuation of the turnaround second half of 2015? Or maybe the pathetic start to the 2015 season was more the real Lions.
Here we go, it’s time to make the picks one game at a time.
Next: Week 1 at Colts
Week 1 – at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts and Lions won’t be one of the headlining games of week one but they may be the most intriguing matchup as the teams are strikingly similar.
Both teams endured disappointing 2015 seasons that saw their offensive coordinators fired mid-season. Both teams are looking for better play from their offensive line and invested heavily through the 2016 NFL Draft in hopes of getting it. Both teams struggle to run the ball effectively. Both teams have questions to answer on defense.
Pulling things in the Lions’ favor could be the differences in health on defense. The Lions get DeAndre Levy back after he missed most of last season while the Colts will be without top cornerback Vontae Davis.
If the offensive turnaround the Lions put together in the second half of last season carries over, Matthew Stafford could be in for a very big day. We saw how a bad start to a season can snowball last year and it could be argued that this is the most winnable road game on the Lions’ schedule. A loss could signal very bad things ahead, but I think the Lions leave Indy with a win.
Prediction: Lions win
Lions’ record: 1-0
Next: Week 2 vs. Titans
Week 2 – vs. Tennessee Titans
Even if week one doesn’t go so well, the Lions have the benefit of returning home to take on the worst team on their schedule. A week one loss, while not predicted here, could signal trouble ahead, but not in week two.
Opinions on the Titans draft varied and there is still work to be done before the Titans can be viewed even as contenders in the weak AFC South. Both teams are building towards something in the future, but the Lions are clearly more established and at least a step ahead in the process.
The home opener, a week opponent; it’s a win for the Lions.
Prediction: Lions win
Lions’ record: 2-0
Next: Week 3 at Packers
Week 3 – at Green Bay Packers
An early-season trip to Lambeau is a big reason why the Lions need to start fast in their first two games. Last year may have shown the latest generation of Lions fans that yes, it is possible for the Lions to win a road game over the Packers but predicting the start of a winning streak would be foolish.
Simply, the Packers are still a superior team. They aren’t the defending NFC North champions but they remain the target the rest of the division is aiming for, particularly after Teddy Bridgewater‘s horrific injury.
Last season was a down year for Aaron Rodgers but there is no reason to expect he won’t bounce back. Getting Jordy Nelson back from injury will certainly help in that regard. The Lions can be competitive with the Packers but look for them to fight for a season split by getting a win over the Packers at home, not at Lambeau.
Prediction: Lions lose
Lions’ record: 2-1
Next: Week 4 at Bears
Week 4 – at Chicago Bears
The Lions will take a 1,372 day unbeaten streak against the Bears into their week four matchup at Soldier Field – can they keep it going?
While mocking Bears fans about the streak is fun – especially fans who just don’t get that a retort about how bad the Lions have been makes their team look worse instead of better – the Lions were quite fortunate to not see the streak come to an end last season.
It took an improbable comeback with perhaps some fortunate officiating to get the home win over the Bears. Then in Chicago, Jay Cutler had his only multi-interception game of the season in which half his passes not caught by Bears were caught by Lions. Even with those fortunate sets of circumstances, the Lions only outscored the Bears by seven total points over the two games.
It might be painful to admit, but the Bears are closer to the Lions than many of us would like to admit. Have they passed the Lions by? I don’t think that is necessarily the case but the defense and offensive line should be improved. I’m seeing a second-straight division road loss to end the Lions’ first quarter of the season.
Prediction: Lions lose
Lions’ record: 2-2
Next: Week 5 vs. Eagles
Week 5 – vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have some rebuilding to do after the failed Chip Kelly experiment. They will have a lot of draft picks at their disposal in the next couple drafts but that does nothing to turn their fortunes immediately.
They believe they have their quarterback in place after trading up for Carson Wentz but he figures to take his lumps early on, especially after missing most of the preseason with a rib injury. It’s a big jump to the NFL for any quarterback, especially one who spent his college career at the FCS level.
It was a big Lions win over the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day last season and another big win could be in order this season. Even if it isn’t a blowout, it’s a game the Lions should expect to win.
Prediction: Lions win
Lions’ record: 3-2
Next: Week 6 vs. Rams
Week 6 – vs. Los Angeles Rams
With Jeff Fisher still in charge, we just have to figure out if this game is one in the half he wins or one in the half he loses.
Last year’s meeting in St. Louis was a disappointing performance as the flat Lions got run over by Todd Gurley on one side and destroyed by Aaron Donald on the other.
Gurley may pose an even greater threat in his second season but the Rams offense should continue to hold back the team as a hole. In an age when young quarterbacks are thrust into duty earlier than ever, first overall pick Jared Goff won’t even start the season on the active 46-man gameday roster. Unfortunately for the Rams, that says more about Goff than the rest of the roster.
The Rams have a very good defense and they are known for coming away with an unexpected win or two but I don’t see the Lions dropping this one.
Prediction: Lions win
Lions’ record: 4-2
Next: Week 7 vs. Redskins
Week 7 – vs. Washington Redskins
Kirk Cousins returns to his home state looking to repeat his individual and team success from 2015 to add another division championship and make his case for a long-term contract to keep him in Washington.
Honestly, I would be inclined to put this down as a toss up if I could. Forcing myself to mark down each game as a win or a loss, I’ll go with the Lions. At this point they will be cozy playing their third home game in a row.
The Redskins could be in for a step back after last season’s surprise 9-7 record considering they had just one win over a team that finished at least .500 (a win over 8-8 Buffalo).
Prediction: Lions win
Lions’ record: 5-2
Next: Week 8 at Texans
Week 8 – at Houston Texans
Honestly, I’m not quite sure what to make of the Texans. I’m not sure that throwing the kind of money they did at Brock Osweiler is a perfect solution to their quarterback situation but it is an improvement after Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates, Ryan Mallett and Brandon Weeden all started games for the Texans last season.
They’ve invested draft picks to build their receiver corps and I like the addition of Lamar Miller. With a good defense, I don’t have to fully buy in to the Texans to see this as a tough game for the Lions to come out of with a win.
Prediction: Lions lose
Lions’ record: 5-3
Next: Week 9 at Vikings
Week 9 – at Minnesota Vikings
The Lions have a long road to their bye week this season with their first trip to the new US Bank Stadium in week nine the final game before finally getting a break. Even if they get through the first half relatively healthy, you can bet some bodies will be feeling the wear and tear of an NFL season.
Playing in Minneapolis has never been easy for the Lions and early reports suggest that loud home field advantage the Vikings enjoyed at the Metrodome may not be hurt as much as moving into a new modern stadium might suggest.
Yes, the Vikings will be without starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater but his impact wasn’t a big reason why I think they could find success this season. With a solid ground game and a very good young defense, the Vikings’ season outlook doesn’t have to nosedive just because Bridgewater is out.
Prediction: Lions lose
Lions’ record: 5-4
Next: Week 11 vs. Jaguars
Week 11 – vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are a chic up and coming pick but I’m more in “prove it” mode with them. A lot of Blake Bortles‘ stats look much better in year two than his rookie stats, but his completion percentage still leaves a lot to be desired and his QBR ranked 28th. Was it really a big step forward or was it a lot of fool’s gold?
For all that said about Bortles, the Jags are actually ahead of the game on offense compared to their defense – despite Gus Bradley getting the head job based on his defensive background.
Don’t get me wrong, I like a lot of things the Jaguars have done, but something about this team still doesn’t sit right with me. A home game coming off the bye, I have no problem marking this down as a Lions win and not giving it a second thought.
Prediction: Lions win
Lions’ record: 6-4
Next: Week 12 vs. Vikings
Week 12 – vs. Minnesota Vikings
It was easy to joke about the Lions losing on Thanksgiving Day being as much of a tradition as them simply playing on Thanksgiving Day just a few years back. The Lions now have a three-game Thanksgiving winning streak they will put on the line when the Vikings come to celebrate the holiday this season.
Even better, the Lions have dominated in all three wins, two of which came against division rivals Green Bay and Chicago. Can they run the streak to four in a row and be able to claim all three of the other NFC North members as victims. I think they will.
Prediction: Lions win
Lions’ record: 7-4
Next: Week 13 at Saints
Week 13 – at New Orleans Saints
The Lions’ primetime road win over the New Orleans Saints last season was one of the highlights of an otherwise disappointing season. The Saints’ season didn’t go as they had hoped but the Superdome is routinely one of the most difficult places to play but the Lions got the job done.
Can they duplicate the effort this season? I think they can, I just don’t think they will.
The Saints offense will continue to be prolific with Drew Brees under center and the defense has to get better eventually, right? Even if it isn’t markedly better this season, the Saints and Lions are teams on relatively even footing overall and asking for another win in New Orleans is asking a lot.
Prediction: Lions lose
Lions’ record: 7-5
Next: Week 14 vs. Bears
Week 14 – vs. Chicago Bears
OK, OK, fellow Lions fans might be a little upset with me for picking a Lions loss to the Bears in the first meeting of the season. Don’t worry, I don’t think the Bears have passed the Lions by or anything like that.
The Bears might be on the right track after a disastrous previous regime but there is plenty or work yet to be done. As the Lions hit the stretch run, a home game against the Bears is a game they can and should win.
Prediction: Lions win
Lions’ record: 8-5
Next: Week 15 at Giants
Week 15 – at New York Giants
With the Vikings moving back indoors and games at the Packers and Bears coming early in the season, the week 15 game at MetLife Stadium against the Giants is the only potential poor weather game the Lions face.
I don’t know how much better the Giants will be this season compared to last but there is something about the Lions going to New York in mid December that really worries me.
The Lions can talk about wanting to be an indoor team with an outdoor mentality but that doesn’t do anything to prepare a team for the swirling winds that can impact a game at MetLife.
Prediction: Lions lose
Lions’ record: 8-6
Next: Week 16 at Cowboys
Week 16 – at Dallas Cowboys
Crazy things always seem to happen when the Lions and Cowboys get together and a lot of it actually goes in the Lions’ favor.
There was Eddie Murray rushing on to the field with the clock ticking to kick a game-winning field goal in 1981.
There was the team’s last playoff win in 1991 when both the Lions and Cowboys were thought of as up and comers in the NFC.
There was Barry Sanders running wild to outperform Emmitt Smith and beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Cowboys in Dallas on Monday Night Football in 1994.
There was the Lions coming back from 27-3 down to win in 2011 with Calvin Johnson coming down with a catch in the end zone despite triple coverage.
There was Matthew Stafford’s fake spike touchdown run to win in 2013.
It’s hard to predict another classic but it’s not hard to predict that the Lions’ magic against the Cowboys may have run out. Despite questions about Tony Romo‘s health to start the season, he should be fine by the time this game comes along and the ‘Boys boast one of the league’s best offensive lines to run behind.
Prediction: Lions lose
Lions’ record: 8-7
Next: Week 17 vs. Packers
Week 17 – vs. Green Bay Packers
Remember earlier when I picked the Lions to lose at Lambeau and said they would have to fight for a win at home for the season split? That’s true, but I don’t think they’ll get it.
The Lions should have something to play for if they end up entering the game at 8-7 as they do in my scenario here, but the Packers probably will too. A superior opponent looking to lock down something in the regular season finale is not a recipe for success for this Lions team.
I dream of a day when the Lions can be counted on to beat the Packers in a late-season game when a lot is on the line for both teams but they aren’t there yet.
Prediction: Lions lose
Lions’ record: 8-8
Instead of pushing for a playoff spot, I have the Lions limping to the finish line to wind up 8-8. If that’s the case, don’t expect Jim Caldwell to be on the Lions sideline in 2017.
Next: Game-by-game predictions from the opposing view
How do you think the Lions’ season will play out? Leave your record prediction as a comment below or find us on twitter or facebook.