The Detroit Tigers will be entering this offseason in a position to be adding pieces for a future run for the first time in a long while. These past couple of years have most certainly felt like some sour times with painful performance, but the end most certainly seems near.
Recently, Detroit Tigers’ owner Chris Ilitch and general manager Al Avila have stated that this phase of the rebuild is over, and the groundwork is set to begin spending to compete. This ultimately means we will see some new free agent faces in Detroit soon. The ultimate question: Who?
Well, the starting point of speculation has been at the shortstop position, given the glut of free-agent talent available and the Tigers’ desperate need for a lockdown piece at the position (apologies, Willi Castro). With all the talent available, it seems like there are no wrong answers for the position.
Out of the available shortstops this offseason, there seem to be two distinct tiers of players the Tigers could target. Within these tiers is a wide array of potential talent, prices, and availability, and they can be arranged in order of appeal as well.
The Tigers could go big or end up going home; time will be the only determinant of that. Fans seem to be under the assumption that Ilitch is going to open up the checkbook for Avila and let him spend some money.
The reality is, Ilitch may say, “not so fast…” and slow that train down before it even leaves the station.
Here are two routes the Detroit Tigers can go while looking for a shortstop.
Detroit Tigers are hunting big game this offseason.
Within the first tier of free agent shortstops lies the biggest prizes of this class. Notable names like Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, and Marcus Semien make up this grouping. Of those four, none will command more attention than Carlos Correa, of whom the Tigers have already expressed interest.
Entering free agency at 27, Correa will likely carry a steep price tag, with Spotrac placing his Market Value (Average Annual Value) at 26,623,480. Correa’s career numbers justify that number, with a career slash line of .277/.356/.481 and 133 homers in his seven major league seasons. He also may carry the greatest signability, with a connection to current Tiger’s manager A.J. Hinch.
However, Correa also carries significant long-term risk. For starters, he will likely be commanding a lengthy (6-8 year) contract that will take him into his early-mid 30’s. Further, he has a rather lengthy injury history, dealing with several back problems between 2018 and 2019.
Other options in this top tier are Seager, Story, and Semien. Of this group, Seager will likely command the most money (27+ Million AAV) due to his history of strong play (.297/.367/.504 career slash) but has an even longer injury history. Story on the surface looks great but is significantly worse without the Coors effect (.972 OPS at home, .752 OPS on the road).
That just leaves Marcus Semien, who has only missed ten games in the past four seasons while being consistently reliable at both shortstop and now second base. Despite his more advanced age than the rest of this class (32 years old), he hit 45 home runs this past season and put up a career-best .538 SLG%.
The second tier: sleepers, veterans, and stopgaps for the Detroit Tigers
The other grouping to find within this free-agent shortstop class is one highlighted by potential under-the-radar pickups and players that could otherwise be considered stopgaps at the position.
Within the sleeper section, there are a couple of notable names. Chris Taylor, Donovan Solano, and Eduardo Escobar. All three are more utility-type hitters that likely won’t command the same money or length on their contracts that a Correa or Seager would. Although none of them are permanent solutions, they would fit well into the short-term plans for coming out of the rebuild.
On the other end of this group are the stopgaps: Brock Holt, Freddy Galvis, or old friends Andrew Romine or Jose Iglesias. None of them will light the world on fire but will most certainly be veteran leadership on a young squad. The problem is, the Tigers are ready to splash, and these just aren’t the guys for that.
Finally, in this grouping are the almost unclassifiable. Javier Baez and Andrelton Simmons fill the roles of players that had a lot of hype around them at a certain point, but neither has lived up to the ceilings they were thought to have. Baez has his well-documented issues with swinging and missing at everything, and Simmons just has not developed a consistent bat.
Overall, this offseason should prove to be an interesting one for any Detroit fans yearning for the Tigers to be competitive in the markets again. Whether it be a high-profile Carlos Correa pickup or an unheralded Chris Taylor deal, it should be a good winter to be a Tigers fan.