Making Sense of the Race for the Big Ten Championship Game

With three weeks to go in the Big Ten regular season, it’s time to take a look at the “Race to Indianapolis” and the Big Ten Title Game on December 3rd.

As you can see, we’ll start with the Legends Division:

Michigan State
-They will represent the Legends Division if they win out.
-If they should lose one of their remaining three games (not Iowa), they would need Nebraska to drop one more game.  If they lose to Iowa, but win out, then they would need BOTH Iowa and Nebraska to lose one more tilt.

Michigan
-They need to win out AND have Michigan State drop at least one more.  The problem for Michigan is that even if they do win out, they won’t hold any tie breakers with Iowa or Michigan State, as they have lost to both of them.  Really, the only way for Michigan to get there with no doubt is to win out, AND have Iowa lose one more game, AND have Sparty lose two.

Nebraska
-They will make it to Indy if the win out AND Michigan State loses one more game.  By winning out, they’d knock Michigan and Iowa out of the race; they would hold the tie breaker with Michigan State.
-Oddly enough, they could lose to Penn State and STILL make the title game.  They would need to beat both Michigan and Iowa, and they would also need MSU to lose two of the last three.  They would then go in as a three conference loss team (ouch).

Iowa
-They (like Michigan State) also control their own destiny.  They hold the tie breaker against Michigan.  They still have Michigan State and Nebraska on their schedule.  That would give them all the tie breakers.
-They could also go as a three loss team if they beat MSU and the Cornhuskers, but then drop the Purdue game.  In that senerio, they would need both Michigan and Michigan State to lose one more game.

Northwestern
-They are eliminated based on the Michigan State-Iowa game.  Reason being?  If Michigan State wins, they will have 5 conference wins, and Northwestern won’t catch them.  If Iowa wins, they will have 4 conference wins, with one being over Northwestern, so they’d lose on that tie breaker.

Minnesota
-They are eliminated as well.

Onto the Leaders Division:

Penn State
-If they win out OR lose a single game, they are definitely in.  Here’s the problem.  Clearly, there is a lot going on in State College right now.  Do you think the football team is still focused?  Well, we’ll see in the next three weeks as they play Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin.  Simply enough, win two out of three, and you are in. 
-Win one out of three (with it being against either OSU or the Badgers) and hope the squad you don’t beat loses another.  For example, if the Lions only beat the Bucks, then they need the Badgers to lose another game.

Wisconsin
-Win out AND have Penn State lose one more in addition to the head to head match-up AND have Ohio State lose an additional contest.  Because they lost the head to head match up to the Bucks, they can’t end up in a tie with them.

Ohio State
-They need to win out, AND they will need Penn State to lose one more game outside the game in Columbus.  Considering the competition and the situation, I can’t see Penn State winning out, so Ohio State still has a very real shot.

Illinois, Purdue, and Indiana
-Illinois and Purdue could at best tie Penn State, but they have both lost to the Lions, so they would hold no tie breaker there.
-Indiana is already eliminated.

Notice, I only dealt with the two way ties.  What if there is a three way tie?  I believe they go to the draw-names-out-of-a-hat method (not serious).  Ok…now who’s ready for the exam?