Upon return from the All-Star break, the Tigers face a difficult stretch of games leading up to the trading deadline. How they fare over the next couple of weeks may determine the type of move, if any, Dave Dombrowski will make. Tiger trade possibilities have been discussed on DJC and other sites for weeks now, but I’m hoping to narrow things down just a bit.
First, I do not expect the Tigers to go after a second baseman. Part of that is due to the lack of impact second basemen on the market, or the fact that those available (see Darwin Barney or Marco Scutaro) do not provide enough of an upgrade to warrant the inflated cost this year’s market requires.
Addressing the starting pitching staff seems more likely, but given recent developments, the Tigers may be better off staying put. Rick Porcello has been better and Max Scherzer has established himself as a solid number two behind Verlander. How Drew Smyly holds up and whether Doug Fister can find consistency after an injury plagued first half will determine whether in upgrade is necessary. But will the Tigers have answers to those questions after the next 2-3 weeks? And if they do trade for a pitcher, who gets the boot from the current staff? Too many indefinites here.
Finally, many reports have the Tigers going after a corner outfield bat, preferably right handed. I believe this is the most likely and necessary trade to be made. Quintin Berry has been good and deserves consistent playing time. However, Andy Dirks will not return till August it seems, and there is no telling what he will produce when he does come back. Everyone knows what Ryan Raburn’s second half numbers have been, but, honestly, he seems such a head case right now that I don’t see that trend continuing.
That leaves Brennan Boesch as the man who will determine whether or not the Tigers will trade for an outfield bat. Boesch has been a disappointment, no breaking news there, but can he be expected to improve or should he be replaced and relegated (if not traded himself) to pinch hitting and spot start duties? Boesch has 8 HR’s, 31 RBI’s, and a .243/.277/.365 line. It’s hard to see Boesch tearing it up in the second half, but, for the purposes of this discussion, let’s say his second half numbers will be 9 HR’s, 35 RBI’s, and a .260/.300/.400 line (a slight improvement on first half numbers makes for a conservative and somewhat likely prediction.)
If that is what the Tigers get from Boesch, would it be worth replacing him with . . .
Jeff Francoeur – Frenchy is a couple years older than Boesch and is more expensive, making $6 million this year and $7.5 million next year. At 7 HR’s, 25 RBI’s, and a .251/.289/.378 line, his numbers are very similar to those of Boesch. While his defense would be an upgrade, I don’t see Francoeur as a worthy replacement.
Carlos Quentin – Probably the most rumored outfielder on the market, Quentin played in only 33 games in the first half and hit 7 HR’s, knocked in 17, and had a .268/.406/.518. The numbers would be an upgrade, and the Tigers would not be absorbing a huge contract, as Quentin is a free agent at year’s end. However, a closer look at Quentin’s numbers show that over the last 19 games, he batted just .167 with 2 HR’s and 6 RBI’s. Quite a setback after a hot start. Combine that with poor defense and a high trade cost, and I don’t see Quentin as a worthy replacement.
Justin Upton – The most surprising name on the market, this one makes no sense. At just 24 years old, the 2-time All-Star is under contract through 2015 and possesses five-tool talent. I won’t even bother with numbers on this one (although they are in decline for Upton), I’m scared by the fact he’s even on the market. This has bad attitude/bad work ethic/not a winner written all over it. I wouldn’t trade Danny Worth for Upton straight up (okay that was a bit extreme).
Hunter Pence – Only recently has Pence been mentioned as a trade candidate. The Phillies are falling fast, and have many big contracts to navigate. They would like to sign Cole Hamels and possibly Shane Victorino to big extensions, so giving up Pence would free up some cash. Pence is making $10 million this year and will likely earn $15 million next year through arbitration, so the price tag is steep. He is also in the prime of his career and has 16 HR’s, 50 RBI’s and a .285/.352/.482 line this season. Therefore, it would take high-end prospects to deal for him. But, he is the best all around player of the bunch and would probably be the biggest upgrade from Boesch.
My thoughts? Stick with Boesch or trade for Pence (as long as it doesn’t require giving up Castellanos) Pence would cost a lot of money and likely Jacob Turner and others, but he is an exciting all around player that would significantly improve the Tigers chances of a World Series run this year and next. After 2013, let him go in free agency and hope that Castellanos or Avisail Garcia is ready to take over an outfield spot.
This trade may seem like a stretch, and it probably is, but when looking at the numbers, Pence is the only available player that would be worth acquiring at Boesch’s expense. If the deal can’t get done, let’s hope Brennan can rediscover some of his old magic.