A Somewhat Realistic Best Case Scenario


If you are like me, you are attempting to detach yourself emotionally from the Tigers last several games.  Then, if successful, when the “eliminated from postseason contention” headline appears, you will take a deep breath and move on with your day, keeping both wall and fist intact for another season.  However, if you are like me, you also know that detachment is nothing but an on-the-surface façade.  Inside, the fire rages on.

Miggy and Prince could still lead the Tigers into first place.

As it stands now, the Tigers are two games back with thirteen to play.  It will take a lot to get back into first place.  But it is not completely hopeless yet.  If the Tigers play well and get some help, they will have a shot at catching the White Sox.  My confidence level is still pretty low, but I believe the following scenario (or something similar) is certainly feasible.

The Tigers must go at least 9-4 in their last thirteen games.  Winning 9 out of 13 is a long stretch of good baseball, something the inconsistent Tigers have not done much of.  But, with their last thirteen being played against the Twins and Royals, it would not completely surprise me.  The Royals are a much tougher test, as proven by their dominance of the White Sox (thank you) and a recent three game sweep of Detroit.  3 out of 4 against the Royals at home and 2 out of 3 against them in Kansas City would make them 5-2.  I would take that against the pesky September Royals.  The Tigers would then have to go 4-2 against the Twins.  They are 7-5 against the Twins this season, including winning 5 of 6 at Target Field.

If the Tigers can accomplish such a successful run (which is really just winning each series the remainder of the season), the White Sox would need to finish 7-6 or worse to put the Tigers into first place.  The White Sox start by going on the road to Los Angeles this weekend, where hopefully a desperate Angels team will take 2 out of 3.  Chicago then comes home to face a lousy Indians team.  With any luck, the Indians will steal one game that series, as well as one game in the final three game set in Cleveland.  Finally, the White Sox have a four game set at home versus Tampa Bay.  The Rays are tough team, and could pitch their way to a split of the four game series.  The only down side to the Rays series is the likelihood that the Rays will be out of the race by then, taking away some urgency from their play.  If they can split the four game set in Chicago, and if the rest of the above takes place, then the White Sox will be 7-6 in their final 13.

So, on October 4, Chicago would travel to Detroit for a one game playoff.

Most fans think the White Sox must collapse for the Tigers to make the playoffs.  I just don’t see that happening.  The Tigers must get on a roll and hope for the White Sox to play win-loss-win-loss baseball.  This coming weekend is the most important, as the Tigers host a bad team and the White Sox travel to a playoff contender.

The scenario I have laid out is unlikely, but it is enough to keep me watching, praying, and boning up on my spackling skills.