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Is Max Scherzer Really Worth $210 Million?

By Souichi Terada

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Well, Max Scherzer is officially gone and won’t be back to the Detroit Tigers come the 2015 MLB season. In a surprising turn of events he inked a 7 year, $210 million deal with the Washington Nationals.

Due to the interesting structure of his contract he’s essentially getting paid $210 million over the course of 14 years. Fangraphs has a great, detailed analysis of how his contract works.

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Scherzer just signed the largest contract for a right-handed pitcher in MLB history. He surpassed his former teammate Justin Verlander in that regard.

The era of baseball where contracts are extremely bloated is among us. Fans and pundits have criticized baseball’s lack of a salary cap as a major concern for years.

But that’s not what this article is about. It’s about Scherzer and the extremely loaded paycheck he just received. It trumps the Tigers’ initial offer before the 2014 MLB season of 6 years, $144 million by a grand total of $66 million.

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    • Luckily for Scherzer and super-agent Scott Boras, Scherzer’s risk on himself paid off in a big way. He’s now extremely richer and will get more than hoped for because of some tax loopholes.

    But is Max Scherzer really worth all that money?

    Looking at it in terms of production Scherzer has been very good for the last 2.5 years. He finished 2012 strongly and ended 2nd in the American League to Verlander with 231 strikeouts.

    In 2013 obviously he won the Cy Young Award while winning 20 games in the process. He broke out in a big way that season and received the Tigers initial offer in the process. The moment he turned that deal down he was going to be taking a large risk on himself.

    Well that risk paid off once the 2014 season came along. Scherzer struggled for parts of the season but still produced a very successful season. 5th in the Cy Young voting along with a 3.15 ERA is a successful season for any pitcher.

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    Though Scherzer’s primary success has been admittedly recent he showed flashes of his brilliance before the latter half of the 2012 season.

    All the way back in the 2010 season he struggled with his mechanics before being demoted to Triple-AAA Toledo for a stretch. He bounced back in his very first start back while fanning 14 Oakland A’s that game. He was then solid for the rest of the season.

    Even in 2011 Scherzer started off well only to fade and become inconsistent as Verlander stole the headlines along his way to an MVP/Cy Young award.

    Critics of the Scherzer contract may not truly realize that Scherzer had stretches where he was good to very good. He just had too many mechanical problems to truly put together a great season. His funky, 3/4 arm slot and delivery just make repeating his pitching motion extremely difficult.

    Sep 9, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer (37) tips his hat to the fans as he walks off the field after being relieved in the seventh inning against the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

    Well, the results speak for themselves. He seems to have put those mechanics problems behind him on his way to becoming one of the best pitchers in the league the last couple of years.

    Is he really worth the $210 million? Probably not for the length of his contract, but that’s the knock on every long-term deal especially for pitchers. It’s no secret that teams are now paying more for past accomplishments than they are for future production.

    It’s no different for Scherzer as he officially leaves the Old English D. For now, he joins a strong squad with an especially qualified starting rotation in the Nationals.

    Scherzer systematically not only got paid but went to a great team with a good chance on winning that elusive World Series ring. That’s all he should want at this point in an established, Major League career.

    He’s also already 30 years old and he’s not going to get any younger. If he regresses hardly a few years from now his contract may be another albatross. For a team like the Tigers who are sprinkled with huge contracts it just wasn’t a risk worth taking at this point.

    At the end of it all Scherzer probably won’t be worth the $210 million. But hardly any pitchers signed to a mega deal are at the end of it. Look at the likes of Barry Zito who struggled mightily during the length of his contract. It’s no secret that any long-term deal is a risk and the Nationals seem to be willing to take that risk.

    For now, Tigers fans should be happy for Scherzer. Sure, he didn’t sign with them but he did have a few great years for the team and was part of all 4 AL Central Division Teams from 2011-2014. He seems like a nice enough guy and seemed to care for the city of Detroit.

    And hey, at least he signed with a National League club, right?

    Now, your thoughts. Is Max Scherzer worth all that money? Or will he burn out? And lastly, how will you remember a pitcher like Scherzer as he racked up strikeout after strikeout in the Old English D?

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