Can Joe Nathan Bounce Back In 2015?
One of the biggest problems for the Detroit Tigers in 2014 was easily the bullpen. There are many articles analyzing how the bullpen can potentially look and what General Manager Dave Dombrowski has done to strengthen it.
With news that Manager Brad Ausmus has already picked who is mainly in the bullpen already it’s clear who needs to do well.
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The biggest X-factor for 2015 and simultaneously biggest problem in the bullpen last year is now the much-maligned pitcher and closer Joe Nathan.
With his enormous price tag of $10 million in 2015 he’s an expensive asset for Ausmus to use.
While he’s been given the closer role to start the season how long that will last is anyone’s guess. Ausmus now has Joakim Soria in the bullpen and he’s a significant upgrade from the faltering Nathan.
After all, Nathan fell flat on his face in 2014 in a big way. His traditional stats speak for themselves. A 4.81 ERA in 58 IP with a whopping 1.534 WHIP has any Tigers fan cringing from their seat.
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He struggled to put it mildly. But why? His 2013 season was superb and he was the best relief pitcher on the market that off-season.
A 1.39 ERA in 64.2 IP with a 0.897 WHIP while converting 43 saves in 46 opportunities is absurd. He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2010 season but bounced back very well. He restructured his career and became very successful.
He reinvented himself from the surgery even with the reduced velocity. He averaged 92.3 mph in 2013 on his fastball and only dipped down to 91.7 mph in 2014. Velocity is not the issue about Nathan.
The biggest issue in 2014 was easily his command. His WHIP was too high in 2014 and allowed way too many baserunners. His 4.5 BB/9 IP (base on balls per 9 innings pitched) in 2014 was the worst of his relief career.
Except in 2013 he still walked hitters at a high rate. A 3.1 BB/9 IP isn’t exactly sparkling. Then what was the problem?
Sep 9, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Joe Nathan (36) checks the runner on first against the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
The bigger issue is the amount of hits he gave up. Allowing only 5.0 H/9 IP (hits per 9 innings pitched) in 2013 jumped up to 9.3 H/9 IP in 2014. That with a spike in more walks all led to way too many baserunners and runs allowed.
Interestingly luck and bad defense actually might be a big factor in Nathan’s fall. His BABIP (batted average of balls in play) in 2014 of .324 exploded .100 points compared to his 2013 rate of .224.
While pitchers can somewhat control the BABIP they give up a lot of it is related to the defense and luck. So with a potentially improved Tigers defense and a little better luck Nathan might have the potential to bounce back and be a nice complimentary piece to this Tigers bullpen. This is exactly what they need for a solid bullpen.
If he can limit the walks and allow fewer hits it’ll go a long way for Nathan to be much more effective come the 2015 MLB season.
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Steamer has him projected for a 3.75 ERA in 65 IP. If he can somehow modestly outperform those expectations to the tune of a 3.40ish ERA that’d be huge for this bullpen.
All in all though a big part of Nathan’s success will be how he’s used by Ausmus. With his age and struggles using him on back-to-back days is risky. On zero days of rest Nathan allows a 6.08 ERA compared to a 3.25 ERA from 1-3 days of rest.
If Ausmus overuses Nathan to the point where he’s pitching back-to-back days often it will blow up right in his face. His mismanagement has been called into question already and we’ll see how the second year manager reacts.
In terms of if Nathan will bounce back or not in 2015 it’s hard to say. He’s entering his age-40 season and it’s hard for pitchers of that age to improve drastically.
If anybody can do it though, who knows, it might be Joe Nathan. He was able to become a completely different pitcher post-surgery and was great for a couple of years doing so.
Now, your thoughts. How do you feel Nathan will do in 2015? Amazing? Terrible? Or just the perfect mix of mediocre? Whatever the case, Nathan is going to be a big part of the bullpen going forward. If the Tigers are going to make the postseason an effective Nathan will go a long way to making that true.