No one’s quite sure what the Detroit Tigers will do as we approach the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. The team is better constructed to win now than win later, but they’re seven games back in the division and some have argued that a quick sell might better position the club to win in 2016 and 2017 if things go south down the stretch.
But it seems clear that owner Mike Ilitch wants to see the Tigers win it all, so odds are that they’ll once again push more chips into the middle of the table in order to better compete right now.
But if they do become buyers, what is the number one position to target? Here’s a look at the positions at which the Tigers have performed the worst in the first half of the 2015 season.
Relief Pitching: -0.4 fWAR (30th in MLB)
The frustrating thing about the bullpen is that (1) everyone could see it was going to be a problem coming into the season and (2) it is now a very big problem.
Detroit relievers have actually posted a not-the-worst 3.80 ERA (21st in MLB), but their peripheral statistics, including the second-worst strikeout rate and sixth-worst home run rate, indicate that things might actually get worse, not better. The Tigers have begun to cycle through names from the minor leagues, but it doesn’t yet look like they’ve found what they’re looking for.
At least one more late-inning arm would be helpful if the Tigers are intent on challenging for the division (and a World Series) this season. The bullpen, as currently constructed, would scare the daylight out of every fan if and when they get to October.
Third Base: -0.4 fWAR (28th in MLB)
Nick Castellanos has put together a nice 15 game stretch lately, hitting .345/.361/.534 since June 23, but he’s been atrocious at the plate overall with a .242/.285/.369 total batting line.
The projections like Castellanos to hit better in the second half — and he still has a promising future ahead — but he’s not a great fielder right now and he’s probably still a below-average hitter the rest of the way in 2015, so the Tigers could look to upgrade at third base.
It might be better, for both the health of the system and Castellanos’ development, if the team stood pat here and let some positive regression take place.
Designated Hitter: -0.4 fWAR (13th in AL)
Victor Martinez has been much, much better since his month-long stint on the disabled list. In his 19 games back he’s hit .337/.375/.506, which is right in line with our expectations.
If he keeps up a hitting pace close to that mark he’ll be just fine as the DH, but the team could use an extra bat now that Miguel Cabrera is out for the next six weeks or so. The platoon of Jefry Marte and Marc Krauss has been effective (offensively) so far, but neither has a track record that suggests an ability to sustain a positive batting line against major league pitching for an extended period of time.
Starting Pitching: +5.0 fWAR (17th in MLB)
The only other spot that has been below the median for the Detroit Tigers is the starting rotation. They’ve been basically average — 1.0 WAR per rotation spot — but nearly 65% of that total positive value has come from David Price. 1.1 fWAR has come from Alfredo Simon, 0.9 fWAR has come from Anibal Sanchez, and -0.2 fWAR has come from the other two rotation spots.
Even if Justin Verlander doesn’t continue to pitch this poorly — and let’s pray he doesn’t — the Tigers still probably have room to upgrade at least one starter. And if the unthinkable happens and Verlander and Shane Greene both somehow turn things around, then they could shove someone out to the bullpen (Simon, perhaps) to strengthen the relief corps.
For the sake of flexibility, the Tigers would be best suited to pursue starting pitching. It wouldn’t need to be (and probably wouldn’t be) a big splash like Johnny Cueto, but even a lower-cost option like Mat Latos could improve the pitching staff markedly while giving the team what they need most: reliable innings.
Next: Tigers Rumors: Could Kazmir and Zobrist be Possibilities?