Detroit Tigers Enter Second Half With Roughly 30% Chance of Making Playoffs
By Matt Snyder
The Detroit Tigers resume action tonight after four long days with only the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game to tide us over. With only 14 games remaining until the trade deadline comes, the organization is going to have to quickly (and continually) assess and reassess their situation in order to determine the best course of action in the lead up to deadline day.
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If the Tigers go 14-0 it will be an easy call to buy. If the Tigers go 0-14 it should be an easy call to sell. The picture gets somewhat cloudier in the middle there.
As things currently stand, the Detroit Tigers have roughly a 30% chance of reaching the postseason. This according to the publish postseason odds at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
Here’s the probability breakdown of the scenarios that would get the Tigers into the postseason:
FanGraphs
Division odds: 9.6%
Wildcard odds: 17.1%
Odds of any playoff games (division odds + wild card odds): 26.7%
Odds of reaching division series (division odds + odds of winning WC game): 17.9%
Baseball Prospectus
Division odds: 11.2%
Wildcard odds: 24.0%
Odds of any playoff games (division odds + wild card odds): 35.2%
Odds of reaching division series (division odds + odds of winning WC game): 23.6%
There’s some disagreement between the two systems (they’re using different player projections systems to calculate expected rest-of-season wins and losses), but there’s a basic, general agreement here. If we do a rough, round average between the two, we could say the odds of each are:
Division odds: 10%
Wildcard odds: 20%
Odds of any playoff games (division odds + wild card odds): 30%
Odds of reaching division series (division odds + odds of winning WC game): 20%
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Those odds are both somewhat low and somewhat high at the same time. At this point it’s not likely that the Tigers make the postseason at all, but it’s nothing like an impossibility.
Picking up a coin a flipping heads twice in a row carries 25% odds. That’s more or less what the Tigers are trying to do down the stretch this season (but not even quite that difficult).
What the Tigers need to decide over the next two weeks is whether or not those odds are high enough for them to act as buyers at the deadline.
30% odds aren’t bad, but even that would only guarantee them one postseason game (and probably a road game). Is that enough to play for? 20% odds of making the Division Series are certainly not as good, but might it still be high enough for the team to act as buyers? That’s for Dave Dombrowski and Mr. Ilitch to decide.
Next: Detroit Tigers and the Path to the Playoffs