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Detroit Lions: Harvard Analysis Sees Return to Playoffs

By Zac Snyder

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There is an overwhelming sense of disbelief that the Detroit Lions will successfully follow up on their 11-5 record and playoff berth last season.

Take a look around the internet and it seems everyone is down on the Lions heading into the 2015 season.

The Sporting News:

"Ndamukong Suh will make the Dolphins last year’s Lions.No Ndamukong Suh will make the Lions last year’s Dolphins."

ESPN:

"8-8. If the Detroit Lions are able to manage this schedule and make a second consecutive playoff appearance, they will have done it despite two brutal stretches coming at the beginning and the end of the season. Looking at the schedule, the Lions could start 1-4 and still contend for a playoff berth, but it won’t be enough."

Sports Illustrated:

"3. Detroit Lions—I didn’t see the Lions coming last year, when they went a surprising 11-5 and made the NFC playoffs, and I don’t see them following up on that success story with another January run. Detroit hasn’t put together consecutive winning seasons and playoff trips since stringing together three in row under coach Wayne Fontes from 1993-95. Haloti Ngata replaces Ndamukong Suh on paper, but I’m not sure the on-field results will be there, and if the Lions’ strength in the middle is missing, Teryl Austin’s defense could be in for a season of regression."

At a time when every fan base is optimistic about the upcoming season, there is a lot out there for Lions fans to get down about.

But wait!

Smart people at the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective went about putting together a bunch of info like team depth charts and player performance metrics to put together a prediction model for the 2015 season. If you’re interested in an in-depth explanation of the methodology, head to the HSAC site.

The end game was to create a playoff probability table and we find that the Lions are giving a little better than a 50-50 shot to return to the playoffs in 2015. That might not sound a whole lot better than what much of the national media is predicting, but it is interesting to note that even at 53% odds, the Lions have the NFC’s third-best playoff odds according to this model.

Here is the full list:

A return to the playoffs would be the surest sign of stability in many years. Even when the Lions made three consecutive playoff appearances under Wayne Fontes in the mid-90s, the team went through many highs and lows on their way to getting there. That’s in stark contrast to the “never too high, never too low” mantra put in place during Jim Caldwell’s first year as Lions head coach.

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