Fantasy Football Draft Advice 2015: Get the Edge to Win Your League
Nov 23, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham (13) catches a one handed touchdown against by Dallas Cowboys cornerback Brandon Carr (39) during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
#5 and On
Once you move on from this group of top guys you still have guys that could be on that same production level that will be drafted 5-10(or 12). Look in that range for: Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, C.J. Anderson, Odell Beckham Jr., Jeremy Hill, Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson.
My favorites for big years are Dez Bryant, Brown and now Cobb with Jordy Nelson out. Remember when Calvin Johnson was a number 1 fantasy pick? Well that’s when Detroit was force feeding him the ball and Megatron performed like Megatron. Well Dez should also be force-fed in Dallas and I expect Dez to capitalize.
With DeMarco Murray in Philadelphia the Cowboys might have a slight uptick in passing plays called this year. The bottom line is that Dez is arguably the best receiver in the league and he’s going to get the ball a lot. Anything less than 10 touchdowns 1400 yards would be a surprising down year for Bryant.
Antonio Brown is in the same boat in Pittsburgh as he’ll be fed again and again. He looks to be in that same statistical boat with Bryant but the sky’s the limit if Brown stays healthy all year.
With Jordy Nelson gone for the year, Randall Cobb should at least repeat last years stats: 1067 yards receiving, 12 TD’s. Let’s remember this guy is Aaron Rodgers #1 option. For those reasons, I’m betting on him to see more targets and have a huge year. Potentially a top 5 wideout.
I’m a seller on drafting CJ Anderson and Hill early in the first round. With Gio Bernard in Cincinnati, I’m not sure if Jeremy Hill will get his touches to be considered a top 10 shoe-in, so I wouldn’t be fully comfortable investing in him in the first round.
Having Gary Kubiak in Denver is great for CJ Anderson as he is the clear #1 for the Broncos. This means he’ll have rushing and receiving opportunities but for me the jury is still out on him as a talent. Not saying he won’t have a good or even great year, but I’d want to wait in the late first in a deep league or sometime in the 2nd before I felt comfortable taking him.
The other guys in that group will all get the lion’s share of their teams touches. Julio will further emerge as a top target in an Atlanta offense that’s pass-heavy and a QB in Matt Ryan that will get him the ball but has injury concerns as a top pick I’d wait until in the 8-10 range before looking at him.
OBJ has Victor Cruz returning in New York other than that Beckham will have the same target opportunities but I would tame my expectations as far as repeating 10+ touchdowns. He should still be right in that neighborhood.
Matt Forte is in my mind sort of like the San Antonio Spurs of fantasy football. Until he actually falls off I won’t count him out. He’s had a ton of touches the last 3 seasons and is soon to be 30, however you can’t argue with his production. John Fox will run Forte a lot and he’s always going receiving threat as long as he’s healthy. There is reason for concern with his age and all the carries on his body. His ceiling isn’t as high as prior years but you can have confidence Forte is a top 10 back in 2015.
Demaryius Thomas is a fantasy star with maybe the highest ceiling of any receiver, but it’s really Peyton that’s my biggest concern for him. If you’re confident Manning will stay healthy I say go for him in the top 5 but I wouldn’t touch him until the mid-to-late- first.
Marshawn Lynch has had 280 carries the last 4 years and 10+ touchdowns the last 5. I’m worried if this year Lynch might lose a half of a step. If Lynch is available at the end of the first he’s worth the risk but he isn’t the top 5 lock he was in years past. If the Seattle offense is firing on all cylinders next Marshawn may have a huge year again because he is Beast Mode. Pick#7 or later is where to get Lynch.
Demaryius Thomas is a fantasy star with maybe the highest ceiling of any receiver, but it’s really Peyton that’s my biggest concern for him. If you’re confident Manning will stay healthy I say go for him in the top 5 but I wouldn’t touch him until the end of the first in a deeper league early second in a smaller league.
As for DeMarco Murray you can’t really be overly confident in any prediction. He is the reigning leading rusher and Chip Kelly’s offense is actually built to run the ball. Philly has Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles who both will take touches from Murray but he should still be productive. A decline in usage could ultimately be the best thing for Murray and fantasy owners. I think anywhere from late first early second is where I’d want to take DeMarco.
Finally we speak on my guy Megatron. If I could count on CJ to play 16 games I’d say he’s a top 5 pick, that would be nice. However the reality is I’d say Calvin is good for 12 games or more. Stafford loves throwing to Calvin but with Tate stepping up and Johnson’s heavy NFL workload already catching to him, I try to hold off on CJ in the first round. Don’t draft him before Number 10 overall.
Next: Value the wide receivers