Detroit Tigers Should Be Cautious With J.D. Martinez Extension

The Detroit Tigers are reportedly negotiating with J.D.Martinez on a contract extension, but the club shouldn’t be in a rush to complete a deal.

The Detroit Tigers and outfielder J.D. Martinez have been having discussions on a long-term contract extension, according to a quote given to Chris Iott of MLive.

"“It’s definitely something we’re still talking about,” Martinez said. “It’s something I think both sides are still interested in. We haven’t come to something where we both feel comfortable yet.“I love this team. I want to be part of this team. I would love to be a Tiger for life. We’ve just got to see how it goes.”"

Martinez, who was released by the Houston Astros prior to the 2014 season, has transformed himself into an All-Star level performer in two seasons with the Tigers. He has been a tremendously valuable player the last two seasons — 4.0 and 5.0 WAR respectively — and projects to be worth 4+ wins above replacement again in 2016.

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But this offseason represents just the second year of arbitration eligibility for the 28 year old, so the Tigers already have him under team control for the 2016 and 2017 seasons. That means they’re really negotiating for the years 2018 and beyond.

Martinez will turn 30 years of age before the 2018 season begins, which means he’ll be in his decline years. He may be in his decline phase already, with recent evidence showing hitters are peaking around age 26.

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With that in mind, the Tigers should be moving forward under the assumption that he’ll never top his 2015 production and that he’ll be providing less and less production as the years go on. He can decline quite a bit from his 2015 level and still be an above-average player, but to sign him now the club should be discounting those future seasons quite a bit.

Justin Upton just got six years and $132 million (plus an opt-out) from the Tigers as a player similar in age and overall value (Upton is just a few days younger than Martinez). But the Tigers hold more leverage with Martinez given the team control years remaining.

The Tigers can already count on getting Martienz’s two best seasons of the rest of his career, so the club doesn’t need to settle for the same deal they gave Upton (before even considering the arbitration discounts which would reduce $132 million down to about $112).

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At least not right now. If worst comes to worst the Tigers can wait a year (or possibly even two) to see if he can maintain his production level as he approaches his 30th birthday. They’ll also want to see if the team is even going to be competitive in 2018 and beyond. The last thing they need to do is rush to commit more money to players in their 30s for those future seasons.