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March Madness Picks: Best 2016 NCAA Tournament Bets by Seed

By Matt Snyder

Mar 16, 2016; Providence , RI, USA; A general view of the court during a practice day before the first round of the NCAA men
Mar 16, 2016; Providence , RI, USA; A general view of the court during a practice day before the first round of the NCAA men /
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March Madness
Mar 12, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors players celebrate after the championship game of the Big West Conference tournament against the Long Beach State 49ers at Honda Center. Hawaii won 64-60. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports /

No. 16 Seed

Do not pick a No. 16 seed to win in the first round. A No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1 seed in the history of the tournament because they are (almost) always completely overmatched.

That being said, if you’re a rebel who probably will lose your bracket pool, take a look at Florida Gulf Coast. They routed Fairleigh Dickinson in last night’s play-in game and looked like the best 16 seed in the tournament.

Do not pick a No. 16 seed in your bracket. My consensus model gives FGCU a 3.4% chance to beat North Carolina. Those are slim odds indeed, but no other 16 has even a 3% chance to win this year.

No. 15 Seed

Unlike the 16 seeds, No. 15 seeds have won first-round games in the NCAA Tournament. It’s still not a likely scenario this year, but could be worth it if your pool awards bonus points for upset picks.

This year’s best pick (though still a very bad pick) from the 15 line is Cal State Bakersfield, who has an 11.1% chance to beat Oklahoma. None of the other three No. 15 seeds crack the 10% mark.

No. 14 Seed

Things start to get interesting with the No. 14 seeds. They’re still dealing with long odds, but in a couple of cases they’re chances are better than 1-in-5. Stephen F. Austin is being given a 22.2% chance to beat West Virginia. (Fresno State is close behind at 21.4% chance to win versus Utah).

No. 13 Seed

The No. 13 seeds are not much better than the No. 14 seeds in this year’s tournament, but they’re playing slightly worse opponents, so the odds tick up slightly. Hawaii tops this group of four with a 27.5% chance to beat California.

Next: No. 12 through No. 9 seeds

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