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March Madness Picks: Best 2016 NCAA Tournament Bets by Seed

By Matt Snyder

Mar 16, 2016; Providence , RI, USA; A general view of the court during a practice day before the first round of the NCAA men
Mar 16, 2016; Providence , RI, USA; A general view of the court during a practice day before the first round of the NCAA men /
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Mar 15, 2016; Dayton, OH, USA; Wichita State Shockers forward Zach Brown (1) and his team react during the second half against the Vanderbilt Commodores of the First Four of the NCAA men /

No. 12 Seed

No number 12 seed is expected to beat a number five this season (so tell that guy in your office he’s lying that he ‘knew it’ when he gets one right), but we’re starting to get some reasonable gambles. Especially if your pool awards bonus points for upsets.

Basketball powerhouse Yale has a 35.3% chance to beat Baylor. Everyone can get behind rooting for the Ivies in basketball.

No. 11 Seed

Now we’re cooking! The No. 11 seeds look quite good in this year’s tournament. All have better than 30% odds to win their first round game, and one is even a slight favorite in their matchup.

Wichita State, who needed to win a Tuesday play-in game to reach the round of 64, is a 51.4% favorite to beat Arizona. These consensus rankings see the Shockers as more of a ‘true’ No. 4 or No. 5 seed.

Bonus pick: Gonzaga is being assigned a 49.4% chance to beat Seton Hall. A coin flip.

No. 10 Seed

Like the No. 11 seed above we have under-seeded teams who are considered by the computer rankings to be favorites in their first round matchups. The best bet here is VCU, which team has a whopping 63.8% chance to win their opening matchup with Oregon State.

No. 9 Seed

A quirk of the bracketing this year: this consensus computer model likes all four number nine seeds to win their matchups with the number eights. They’re being favored only slightly, however. Less than 60-40 in all but one case. That exception? No. 9 Connecticut has a 65.3% chance to beat Colorado.

Next: No. 8 through No. 5 seeds

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