March Madness Picks: Best 2016 NCAA Tournament Bets by Seed
By Matt Snyder
No. 4 Seed
From here on out, all of the higher seeded teams are favored by the numbers. That’s probably intuitive, but should be stated nonetheless.
You wouldn’t do poorly to pick all of these teams to win, but you want to make sure you put Kentucky through to the second round, at the very least. The Wildcats top the No. 4 seeds with an 87.3% chance of winning their first round game with Stony Brook.
No. 3 Seed
The No. 3 seeds are all heavily favored against the No. 14 seeds, but there isn’t a single matchup that looks like a solid lock. The closest thing is Miami (FL), who are being given an 86.2% chance to beat Buffalo.
No. 2 Seed
Again, you should be picking all the favorites here. But the most favorite out of the No. 2 seed grouping is the Michigan State Spartans (who always perform well in the month of Izzo). Michigan State is a 94% favorite to beat Middle Tennessee and advance to the round of 32.
No. 1 Seed
Pick all four number one seeds. They’re all going to win. But, in case you don’t heed that advice, make sure you pick Kansas. The Jayhawks have a 98.1% chance to beat Austin Peay (which is a real team from a real conference called the Ohio Valley Conference).
Next: 20 Best NBA Draft Picks from Michigan State
Using mathematical odds is never a guarantee of bracket accuracy when it comes to March Madness picks. Even top-seeded Kansas has a nearly 2% chance of losing in the first round.
But using math does give you the advantage in knowing where it might be appropriate to take a risk and where you might be shooting yourself in the foot with a low percentage play.