Detroit Tigers: Nick Castellanos’ Breakout Might Not Be Real
By Matt Snyder
Nick Castellanos is off to a hot start at the plate for the Detroit Tigers, but his breakout might be a small sample size fluke.
Third baseman Nick Castellanos has had a tremendous first month at the plate for the Detroit Tigers with a .361/.371/.590 batting line to his name. That line puts him on top of the team leader board in batting average, second in on-base percentage, and third in slugging.
Castellanos was rated as the Tigers’ best hitting prospect from the day he was drafted, so it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see him grow into a plus hitter at the age of 24, but the jury is still out on whether his hot start is real or if it is simply an artifact of early season sample sizes.
To be completely fair, the truth generally lies in the middle when contemplating these sorts of questions. Castellanos is likely better than he’s been so far in his career and is likely not as good as he’s been thus far in 2016. But that’s not an interesting conclusion!
Let’s investigate some of his early 2016 peripheral statistics and see how they compare to his career norms.
Possible Positive Sign: Fewer Ground Balls
First, the good news. Castellanos is hitting fewer ground balls than he has in the past (23.8% this year vs. 35.2% career) which has led to an increase in line drives and fly balls. Fly balls aren’t always good — they can be easy outs — but they can also be home runs, and home runs are one of the best types of hits.
Pretty much the best thing that can happen on a ground ball is for it to roll through for a single. Frequently they’re gobbled up for ground outs or turned into double plays. That might be an okay risk-reward result if you’re a speedster, but maybe not as good if you’re Nick Castellanos.
Those extra line drives and fly balls can mean extra hits and, especially, extra extra base hits. That is reflected in his numbers this season as his isolated power is up to .229 from his career .153 average.
Possible Negative Sign: Not Making More Contact in the Zone
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But although he seems to be making better contact when he connects (at least with regard to launch angle), Castellanos doesn’t seem to be making more contact overall than he has in the past.
His strikeout rate is 25.8%, which is actually up a tick from his 24.7% career average, and his contact rate when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone (according to pitch f/x data) is 83.2%, down a percentage point from his 84.3% career average (MLB average is basically 86%, though it’s trending down).
Where Castellanos has made some strides is in contact rate outside the strike zone. He’s up to 59.7% from a 50.8% career average. That’s probably a good sign, though he’s still below MLB average (which has been closer to 65%).
Possible Negative Sign: Swinging at More Pitches Outside the Zone
Increasing his out-of-zone contact rate is probably a good thing (if you’re going to swing, you might as well hit it), but it’s probably not a good thing that he’s been swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone (especially since he’s still below average at making contact with them).
Castellanos has swung at 39.1% of pitches thrown outside the strike zone, up from his 33.8% career average. The average major leaguer swings at about 30% of pitches outside the zone.
The extra pitch chasing hasn’t hurt his strikeout rate (probably thanks to the improved out-of-zone contact rate), but it has cut into his walk rate. Castellanos has drawn a walk in just 3.4% which is down significantly from his 6.1% rate (and roughly 8% league average rate).
Possible Negative Sign: Not Hitting the Ball Exceptionally Hard
According to StatCast data, Castellanos’ average batted ball exit velocity is 88.8 mph. That number ranks him 145th in the major leagues (min. 30 batted ball events), and seventh among the Tigers’ normal starters (behind Anthony Gose but ahead of Ian Kinsler and Jose Iglesias).
Castellanos’ improved batting line has manifested two ways: more hits and more power, and neither are probably showing up in sustainable ways.
It’s hard to envision his isolated power numbers staying high unless his batted ball velocity increases, and we should expect fewer balls to drop for hits as well.
Castellanos’ batting average on balls in play is an astounding .441, but that’s likely to drop nearly 100 points by the end of the season. Rod Carew, the best ball-in-play hitter of the post-DH era, hit for a career BABIP of .360. It’s not reasonable to expect Castellanos to be better than Carew.
It’s impossible to say for sure whether Castellanos is in the process of turning a corner or not, but there are reasons to believe he’s been benefiting greatly from good fortune.
Next: Tigers' Most Forgettable Hitters of Last 10 Years
He can regress from his current line (167 wRC+) a good bit and still be an above average hitter, but (right now) it doesn’t look like he’s the next Miguel Cabrera or J.D. Martinez.