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Detroit Tigers Should Pair Anibal Sanchez and Michael Fulmer in the Rotation

By Matt Snyder

May 25, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez (19) throws the ball against the Philadelphia Phillies during the second inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
May 25, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez (19) throws the ball against the Philadelphia Phillies during the second inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Detroit Tigers should consider using Anibal Sanchez and Michael Fulmer in tandem to save both from the times through the order penalty while limiting overall workload.

The 2016 Detroit Tigers, in a lot of ways, are who we thought the were. Not in all of the exact ways fans predicted in the preseason, but the offense is good — they’re tied for 2nd best in the American League with a team 107 wRC+ — and the pitching is not — they’re have the third worst ERA in the AL entering Memorial weekend.

The most recent pitching blowup came Wednesday afternoon in the series finale against the Philadelphia Phillies. Every time the offense seemed to claw back into the game, the pitching and defense allowed the Phillies to pull back ahead.

Defensive errors certainly played a part in this particular game, but included in the mess was one more (anecdotal) piece of evidence of Anibal Sanchez faltering late in games, specifically the third time through the opponents’ batting order. Here are some of his rate stats from Wednesday’s start:

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1st and 2nd, combined: 22% strikeout rate, 0% walk rate, 0% home run rate.
3rd time through the order: 11% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate, 22% home run rate.

To be clear, I’m presenting those particular stats in that particular way because it makes my point look good, but having trouble the third time through the order isn’t anything new for Sanchez. Here’s his career OPS allowed as he turns over the opposing lineup each time with this year’s number in parenthesis:

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1st: .675 OPS (.720 OPS)
2nd: .660 OPS (.747 OPS)
3rd: .780 OPS (1.185 OPS)

He’s been quite a bit worse overall this season, but opposing batters have been Barry Bonds, on average, when seeing him for the third time in a game.

And, while he’s maybe an extreme example, this isn’t a problem that’s unique to Sanchez. The times through the order penalty (TTOP) is a real, documented problem for starting pitchers that seemingly has nothing to do with pitch counts or fatigue. It’s a familiarity factor.

One possible solution for the Detroit Tigers? Pair Sanchez with rookie Michael Fulmer in a sort of tandem starter role.

With Shane Greene probably nearing a return from his blister injury, the Tigers could bump Fulmer from his rotation spot (in a manner of speaking) and allow Sanchez and him to face 18 batters each every fifth day.

Pairing the two would serve five purposes:

  1. Preventing Sanchez from facing the lineup for a third time, a time in which he’s seemed particularly susceptible to damage.
  2. Protecting Sanchez (who’s had a history of arm and shoulder injury) from excessive workload.
  3. Protecting Fulmer (who’s a rookie and likely on a pitch/innings limit) from excessive workload.
  4. Allowing Fulmer to continue to develop both (1) in the major leagues and (2) with a sort of starter’s mentality.
  5. Allowing Fulmer to become familiar with a sort of bullpen role, a role in which he might thrive in a potential playoff run.

A potential downside would be that the Tigers would be down a man in the bullpen (in a manner of speaking) the other four days of the week, but this fact should be mitigated by the nominal off day they’d receive on the Sanchez/Fulmer start day. They should get through eight or nine innings almost every time.

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Will the Detroit Tigers implement this plan? Almost certainly not. But with starters struggling to go deep into games, they should consider using someone(s) like Fulmer (or Daniel Norris or Matt Boyd, if they can prove effective) as old-school relievers capable of going 2-3 innings so manager Brad Ausmus can be proactive in pulling his starters before the run into trouble.

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