Detroit Pistons Will Benefit From Deep 2016 NBA Draft

The Detroit Pistons have a later first round pick in the 2016 NBA Draft than they have had in recent drafts, but there is good news is this draft’s depth.

The ESPN analytics department has churned out their ratings for the 2016 NBA Draft and it’s good news for the Detroit Pistons.

Every draft is filled with booms and busts, but not all drafts are created equal with some having deeper groups of talent than others. With a later first round pick than they have had of late, the Pistons are a team that will benefit from this draft being regarded as the deepest in recent memory.

A combination of rankings, statistics and physical attributes, ESPN analytics has given each player a draft grade and a breakdown of the odds of becoming an all-star, starter, bench player or bust. From ESPN:

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"To help sort out the debate at the top (and bottom) of the draft, ESPN Analytics has developed projections for how well college prospects ranked in Chad Ford’s Top 100 will perform early in their careers. More accurately, it is predicting a player’s statistical plus-minus (SPM) in years two through five in the league, which is the time frame players are under team control for below-market prices without unnecessarily penalizing them for outlier rookie seasons.The model uses box score stats (adjusted for level of competition faced and pace), scouts’ rankings and player information — such as age, height, weight and position from 2001 to 2011 — to project out future classes. The resulting output is twofold: a player’s draft grade, which is based on his total projected SPM, and his percentage chance to play at the level of an All-Star, starter, bench player and bust in his first five seasons."

With all the individual player grades computed, they go the next step of assessing the overall strength of the draft by computing the average draft grade for the top 50 players.

International and high school players are not represented in the analytic analysis so drafts can skew based on the impact from players from those groups, but it is a good representation overall.

With a top 50 average of 76.7, the 2016 NBA Draft earns the distinction of the deepest of the past 16 drafts. Some drafts are better at the top, but this one looks special for it’s depth, driven largely by its group of big men.

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"Though the focus will always be at the top of the draft, it is likely that in 10 years this class will be remembered for its depth rather than its superstars. Highlighted by the deepest crop of college big men we’ve seen in the past 15 seasons, there are plenty of steals to be found outside the lottery."

That puts the Pistons in better position with the 18th overall pick than they would be in most years. Even if they ultimately decide that trading the pick is in their best interest, a deeper draft means more value in return.

And even though the Pistons might appear set with big men with Andre Drummond and Aron Baynes, Baynes now looks like a good bet to take advantage of his opt-out after next season. A rising cap and his play last season should have Baynes in line to earn more than the $6.5 million he’s set to earn in 2017-18.

The second-deepest group was the 2010 NBA Draft, in which the Pistons selected Greg Monroe with the seventh overall pick. The Pistons hold the 18th pick this year, which is where Eric Bledsoe was drafted in that 2010 draft. Something similar would do just fine, thank you very much.

Next: Chad Ford Connects 7 Players To Detroit Pistons

Fans underwhelmed by the rankings of the seven players that got a Pistons mentioned in Chad Ford’s latest big board will like seeing that many of those players fared better in the ESPN analytics rankings. Domantas Sabonis, Cheick Diallo, Denzel Vantentine and Ben Bentil all ranked higher in the analytics-based rankings than the straight scout rankings.

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