Detroit Tigers Have a Michael Fulmer Problem

As some point this season, the Detroit Tigers will have a Michael Fulmer problem to solve: limit the impressive rookie’s innings or win now?

The Detroit Tigers have a Michael Fulmer problem. No, I’m not insane. This “problem” is not a dire one such as Mike Pelfrey‘s inability to earn a quality start, Anibal Sanchez‘s predilection for giving up the long ball, or Justin Upton being consistently unable to be consistent. Fulmer’s problem is a great one to have, but one that will have to be addressed at some point in 2016.

Fulmer has been a breath of fresh air for a Tigers’ squad that had expectations coming into the season, but have hovered just above or below .500 for much of the season. It is shocking how impressive the 23-year old right-hander has been since being plucked from the New York Mets minutes before last July’s trading deadline for Yoenis Cespedes, clearly a trade that actually lives up to the old cliché of “helping both sides.”

Historic Performance

Before we list the eye-popping numbers, let’s take a step back and realize this is a guy who has pitched in just 133 minor league innings above A-ball.

Friday night in Kansas City, Fulmer once again dazzled, and continued piling on his Tigers’ record of 33 1/3 scoreless innings before allowing a two-out, sixth inning homer to Salvador Perez. He’d exit the game shortly after, and would see his bullpen mates blow any chance of his offense picking him up to avoid a non-deserved loss, after the 1-0 deficit turned into a 10-3 defeat.

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According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Fulmer’s astonishing scoreless streak was the second-best in 45 years, behind only Fernando Valenzuela‘s 35 innings back in 1981. Additionally, numberFire cobbled together some good statistics, noting, according to Richard Justice, that he was the first rookie to pitch four straight scoreless starts since Grover Alexander in 1911.

ESPN Stats & Info noted that Fulmer is just the second pitcher in 100 years–A CENTURY–with four straight starts of allowing no more than three hits and surrendering zero runs. The other player? Phenom Jake Arrieta.

These amazing numbers have some thinking AL Rookie of the Year, and even some, like my Detroit Jock City colleague Chris Woy, believing he should be in the Cy Young discussion.

Innings Limit

So where does the problem lie? Fulmer’s mounting innings. In today’s baseball climate, where 100 pitches is becoming more and more an invisible brick wall for starting pitchers, innings limits has sadly become a real thing.

With 124.2 innings as his high-water mark, split between high A-ball and Double-A affiliates of the Mets and Tigers last year, Fulmer has already reached nearly half of those innings pitched (59.1). This means that if he averages six innings per game, he will hit that 124+ mark in 11 more starts.

On average, Fulmer will start once per week, although there are times when starters go twice in a week with no off-days, meaning mid-August will be when he hits that plateau. His previous high in innings was 2012 with 108 in low A-ball. The following year saw a drop to 46 innings, increasing back to 98.1 innings for 2014.

Perhaps how much more he’ll be used will depend on where the Tigers sit in the standings at the moment. Despite their efforts at inconsistency this year, Detroit is still in the thick of the AL Central race.

If the team falters, as they did in July of last year, it will be an easy call to shut Fulmer down at the end of August as his innings would likely be reaching the 150 plateau. If the Tigers are in first place by a few games, or trail the division or wild-card leaders by a couple of games, do you roll the dice and keep starting him?

Jordan Zimmermann was the Tigers’ best starter in April, but has struggled since. Justin Verlander has been pretty good, but since the beginning of May it’s hard to argue against Fulmer being the best pitcher on the team. If Fulmer is truly a star in the making, and this continues into July and August, it will be a tough pill for fans to see a contending team shut down their young star.

No Clear Answer

Personally, I’m not sure what the right answer is. As someone who is often frustrated that pitchers can’t go much more than 100, 110 pitches, this would probably be a tough pill for me to swallow.

In an age where pitchers are coddled and protected, Tommy John surgeries are as rampant as kids having their tonsils removed. On the other hand, you’d hate to see a promising career derailed by fatigue and injury if too much strain is being placed on the body.

A decade ago, Verlander pitched 207.2 innings in his rookie year of 2006 (regular and postseason). Like Fulmer, JV didn’t spent much time in the high minor leagues, pitching just 32.2 innings above A-ball, with his previous high for innings coming in 2005 with 118.2 (plus 11.1 in a cup of coffee in Detroit that year).

So the Tigers have shown a willingness to push a guy a little further when they are having a good season, however Fulmer’s previous organization has shown that innings limits can be an incredible tricky situation to handle with the Matt Harvey debacle from a year ago.

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Bottom line is that it seems every guy is different, and where the Tigers’ find themselves down the line, and how Fulmer is feeling and performing will all be taken into consideration when making a tough decision.

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