Michigan State Football: 2016 Game-by-Game Predictions

Week Eight: Michigan State (7-0) v. #7 Michigan, October 29

Series History: First meeting in 1898, Michigan leads the series 68-35-5.

What Happened Last Time:

The Michigan Wolverines:

The Wolverines now enter year two of the Jim Harbaugh era, and the expectations are extremely high, as they came in seventh in the preseason AP poll with one voter voting them the number-one team in the country.

Tempering all of this enthusiasm is Michigan’s quarterback situation, which features a guy who lost the starting job at Houston (John O’Korn), an injury magnet (Shane Morris) who lost the starting job in 2015 to a graduate transfer student who lost his starting job at Iowa, as well as someone named Wilton Speight who played in six games last season and completed nine of 25 passes. Does Harbaugh have any eligibility left?

The good news for Michigan is that Harbaugh took that graduate transfer student and got him drafted by the Detroit Lions in April. The bad news is that while Jake Rudock was already a competent football player with two years as a starter under his belt, none of the quarterbacks on Michigan’s roster currently appear to have that kind of upside, so Harbaugh has his work cut out for him.

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Spartan Avenue

It will help that whoever is taking snaps for the Wolverines this season that the offense around him is very experienced and competent. The offensive line returns four starters, including three seniors, the team’s top three pass catchers, all seniors, are coming back, as are the top two rushers from a year ago, both seniors. Those two rushers, De’Veon Smith and Drake Johnson, lead an unconvincing ground game, barely combining for 1,000 yards last season. The continuity of the offensive line should help with that, as well as providing the quarterback with enough protection to get the ball to a talented group of receivers.

It will help that whoever is taking snaps for the Wolverines this season that the offense around him is very experienced and competent. The offensive line returns four starters, including three seniors, the team’s top three pass catchers, all seniors, are coming back, as are the top two rushers from a year ago, both seniors. Those two rushers, De’Veon Smith and Drake Johnson, lead an unconvincing ground game, barely combining for 1,000 yards last season. The continuity of the offensive line should help with that, as well as providing the quarterback with enough protection to get the ball to a talented group of receivers.

However, it will all come down to the quarterback. If he plays well, Michigan’s offense could be really good. But that is a big “if.” Best case scenario for Michigan is that the week one starter jumps right in and plays well enough to run what could be one of the best offenses in the conference. Worst case, the Wolverines sit him after losing a potential trap game to Penn State or Wisconsin and are furiously cycling through their options when they hit a tough second-half schedule with road games at Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State.

Michigan’s defense was one of the best in the country last season and should be once again in 2016. The defense brings back most of its starters, including one of the best players in the country at any position in Jabrill Peppers. Defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin departed to become head coach at Maryland, so the Wolverines brought in the man who built Boston College’s outstanding defense, Don Brown. The linebacker corps is a little thin, but other than that, there is no reason the defense would not return to the form that held half of their opponents to seven points or less,including three shutouts, in 2015.

Forecast:

Little brother is all grown up.

The Spartans have controlled this series in recent years, winning seven of the last eight meetings while Michigan went through their Rich Rodriguez/Brady Hoke phase following Lloyd Carr’s departure. To be fair, Michigan has had the worst luck in this series for a while. Now that Jalen Watts-Jackson’s fumble return has joined the “pass interference that wasn’t” and Clockgate in the nightmares of Michigan fans, the Wolverines have, they hope, filled their quota of one inexplicable disaster against the Spartans per decade.

This season’s edition has more at stake than most. It will be the first meeting between two of the Big Ten East’s triumvirate of top-tier programs, and could very well derail, or at least set back, the loser’s hopes of a Big Ten Championship and a College Football Playoff appearance.

The game is in East Lansing, will doubtlessly garner a national audience and will be a low-scoring Big Ten slugfest under the lights. Like so many of these matchups in recent years, it will be a great game that comes down to one play and this year that play will be a mistake made by an overmatched Michigan quarterback in a crucial moment. Spartans win another classic and Paul Bunyan wears green again.

Final Prediction: <‘o’>

Should I Watch It?: Yes.

Season Record: 8-0

Next: Week Nine: @ Illinois