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Detroit Tigers Playoff Odds on the Rise Again, Wild Card in Sight

By Matt Snyder

Aug 31, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias (1) and center fielder JaCoby Jones (40) and right fielder J.D. Martinez (28) run to swarm Tyler Collins (not pictured) after his sacrifice fly to score Jones defeats the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park. Detroit won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 31, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias (1) and center fielder JaCoby Jones (40) and right fielder J.D. Martinez (28) run to swarm Tyler Collins (not pictured) after his sacrifice fly to score Jones defeats the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park. Detroit won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Detroit Tigers finished Wednesday in a tie with the Baltimore Orioles for the second AL Wild Card spot. Their playoff odds are now over 50%.

The Detroit Tigers’ playoff odds are back over 50% thanks to some late-game heroics and a series sweep over the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers are now 8-2 over their last 10 games which has helped to make up for the 3-10 skid they went through in the middle of the month.

Detroit’s 2016 postseason odds peaked at 60% on August 6. At the time they held the second Wild Card spot and were within a couple of games of the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central division standings. But the aforementioned 3-10 stretch saw those odds plummet below 20% just two weeks later.

A lot can happen in the final 29 games of the season, but the Tigers have put themselves in position to compete for the playoffs. “Meaningful games in September” were something we used to dream of when the club was a laughingstock in the early 2000s.

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If the season ended today the Tigers would have to play a Game 163 against the Baltimore Orioles with the winner advancing to the Wild Card game. A play-in game for the play-in game, in a matter of speaking.

But current projections like the Tigers (and their schedule) better than the Orioles down the stretch. The playoff odds hosted at FanGraphs give the Tigers a 40% chance of winning the Wild Card with an expected win total of 87-88 games. The Orioles (and Astros, who are one game back) are expected to win 86-87 games with Wild Card odds in the 20-30% range.

Those are extremely thin margins, however, and the odds could begin wildly from day to day depending on results. One game makes a huge difference down the stretch when several teams are stacked tightly like this.

Every series is big at this stage, but the Tigers have particularly important games in the near future as they play the Royals (2.5 games back) and Orioles for six of their next nine games.

Next: Tigers All-Time 25-man Roster

What do you think, will the Tigers be able to stay strong down the stretch and earn a postseason berth?

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