Michigan State Basketball: 2016-17 Game-By-Game Predictions

November 11 – v. #10 Arizona (Armed Forces Classic, Honolulu)

Arizona looked much stronger a few weeks ago, but with the sudden and mysterious loss of potential All-American Allonzo Trier, as well as Ray Smith’s third ACL tear, the Wildcats are suddenly without depth and will rely on a talented freshman class—led by seven-foot Fin Lauri Markkanen—to step into a bigger scoring role right away. With these sudden changes, the Wildcats will need to make some adjustments. They’ll still be good, but probably won’t have it figured out by the opener. Michigan State wins.

November 15 (1-0) – v. #2 Kentucky (Champions Classic, New York)

Michigan State’s schedule is always tough, but playing two top-ten teams in the first two games a lot even for an Izzo schedule. John Calipari is at it again with another team of freshman phenoms, led by Malik Monk, who has outstanding athleticism and-

Oh.

Okay, then.

Of course, Kentucky being Kentucky, they have two other freshmen who were ranked in ESPN’s top ten, forward Bam Adebayo and point guard De’Aaron Fox, and the three of them are expected to lead the Wildcats in scoring this year. Whatever you think of the one-and-done model, Calipari’s team is loaded with talent. If this game were being played in March, it might be different, but the young Spartans are not quite as talented as the young Wildcats. Kentucky wins.

November 18 (1-1) – v. Mississippi Valley State

Playing the Delta Devils will be a welcome matchup for the Spartans after a difficult first two games. MVSU finished 8-27 a year ago and is ranked #337 in Division I by Sports Illustrated. This matchup will be no problem for Michigan State in its home opener. Michigan State wins.

November 20 (2-1) – v. Florida Gulf Coast

Hey, it’s Dunk City! The 2012-13 Eagles, who advanced to the Sweet 16 despite being a #15 seed and busted everyone’s bracket with so much aplomb and flair that no one even minded, are nowadays only a ghost of tournaments past. The Eagles are still pretty good, winning the Atlantic Sun tournament championship and a First Four game in 2015 before being bounced by North Carolina in the first round, but the Spartans should have no trouble winning this one at home. Michigan State wins.

This game is technically part of the Battle 4 Atlantis Mainland, but it has no bearing on the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. It does, however, give us an excuse to watch those Dunk City highlights.

November 23 (3-1) – v. St. John’s (Battle 4 Atlantis Quarterfinal, Nassau, Bahamas)

The Spartans will be out in the middle of the ocean once again over Thanksgiving as they take part in the Battle 4 Atlantis. (Which has featured eight teams participate since its inception in 2011. Not sure why there’s a “4”). The Red Storm won only one game in the Big East last season, but have a couple of new players who will make an impact, including JUCO transfer Bashir Ahmed and freshman Marcus LoVett, who did not play last year due to being a partial academic qualifier. Former Spartan Marvin Clark Jr. is also on the roster after transferring in April but is not eligible this season. All of that being said, St. John’s lacks the depth to compete with Michigan State. The Spartans should win handily and advance. Michigan State wins.

November 24 (4-1) – v. Baylor or VCU (Battle 4 Atlantis Semifinal, Nassau, Bahamas)

This game sets up like a second-round NCAA tournament game for the Spartans. Baylor and TCU are both consistent mid-level tournament teams and Michigan State will face a short one-day turnaround. Both the Bears and Rams lost their most productive players, Rico Gathers and Melvin Johnson respectively, and while they’re both talented and return several contributors, Izzo is a master of the short turnaround and the Spartans are definitely the most talented team here, whether they play Baylor or VCU. Michigan State wins.

November 25 (5-1) – v. #13 Louisville/LSU/Old Dominion/Wichita State (Battle 4 Atlantis Final, Nassau, Bahamas)

The most likely scenario here is a matchup with Louisville unless Witchita State pulls off a second-round upset. Assuming the Spartans will face the Cardinals, this is another one of those games that would look very different in March because both of these teams will be featuring young players playing bigger roles.

Trying to hit the reset button after the scandal that kept them out of NCAA tournament play a year ago, Louisville lost its top three scorers from last season (including underhanded free throw shooting hero Chinanu Onuaku) and will be particularly dependent on junior Quentin Snider and sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell.

They have a ton of length in the paint, so it’s probable that Louisville will be able to out-rebound a Michigan State team that will still likely be without Ben Carter and Gavin Schilling, and the Cardinals will play good defense. Thus, Louisville gets the edge in a virtual toss-up in the Battle 4 Atlantis final. Louisville wins.

November 29 (5-2) – @ #1 Duke

Michigan State closes out a crazy busy month in which they will play at least four, if not five, top 25 teams by playing one of the best teams in the country in one of the toughest places to play in the country. Grayson Allen is one of three returning starters and one of the best players in college basketball and the Blue Devils have a strong recruiting class as well.

Let’s just get this out of the way: the Spartans will probably lose and the near-clockwork annual early-season worries induced by a ridiculously difficult schedule will emerge once again. The Spartans will most likely start 6-2 or 5-3 and will probably be near the bottom of the top 25 at the end of November, but it’s early and the Spartans have a lot of young talent that must go through their early-season growing pains to be ready for conference play. Duke wins.