Michigan State Basketball: 2016-17 Game-By-Game Predictions
March 1 (21-9, 11-5) @ Illinois
Illinois doesn’t have much depth beyond Malcolm Hill, and it will show against a Michigan State team preparing for tournament play. Michigan State wins.
March 5 (22-9, 12-5) @ Maryland
Five different players averaged 11 points a game or more for the Terrapins in 2015-16, but all of them except Melo Trimble are gone. Trimble is really good and the new starters are veterans for the most part, but it remains to be seen whether or not Maryland can keep up that diverse offensive attack or if Trimble will have to try to do more himself. The Spartans will have the advantage on the glass, so if they can keep Trimble in check, they can get a nice road win right before the conference tournament. Michigan State wins.
March 8-12 (23-9, 13-5) – Big Ten Tournament
With five conference losses, the Spartans probably nab a three-seed in the Big Ten tournament, which is enough to automatically see them through to the round of eight, where they will face six-seed Ohio State. The Spartans get past the Buckeyes, but turn around and face a March-ready Indiana team whose talent has been fully realized. The Hoosiers advance to the Big Ten Championship and Michigan State is awarded a #4 seed on Selection Sunday.
NCAA Tournament
Joe Lunardi of ESPN has the Spartans pegged as a #3 seed in his preseason Bracketology. However, if the Spartans are given a four-seed instead—everything else remaining the same—they would face the #13 MAC champion Akron Zips in the tournament’s first round. Akron’s not bad, but Michigan State isn’t losing in the first round two years in a row, and they go through to the second round.
Awaiting them will be the winner of #5 UCLA and #12 Monmouth, which means that the Spartans will, of course, be facing Monmouth. They’re a 12-seed, people. 12-seeds always beat 5-seeds, it’s just how it is. Besides, it gives us an excuse to watch the Monmouth bench.
The Spartans will keep the Hawks’ bench celebrations to a minimum in the second round, however, as Izzo is the master of the tournament two-day turnaround. Michigan State wins and advances to the Sweet Sixteen, where they face the #1 Duke Blue Devils and will doubtlessly be a trendy upset bracket pick.
Unfortunately for Michigan State, however, Coach K and the Blue Devils are just too good this year and the Spartans, led by as many as four freshman starters at this point, lack tournament experience. Michigan State loses its rematch with Duke and goes home after its third game in the tournament.
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While losing in the tournament is always disappointing and failing to bring home any real hardware in the form of a tournament championship or Final Four berth might be frustrating, a 25-plus win season and a advancing to the second weekend of the tournament after losing so much talent from the season before couldn’t really be seen as a failure in a transition year for Michigan State and would be an excellent start for a talented group of freshmen that look like they could challenge for a national championship before they’re done in East Lansing.