March Madness Picks: Best NCAA Tournament Bets From Every Seed Line
By Matt Snyder
No. 16 seeds: UC-Davis
You should not pick a No. 16 seed to win a game this year. I have UC-Davis as the best of the lot at 3.4% to beat Kansas. They won’t win. Kansas is perhaps the weakest No. 1 seed in the field this year, but they’re still so much better than UC-Davis. Do not even think about this one.
No. 15 seeds: Troy
We’re still not to the point where you want to make a pick, but Troy over Duke looks like the best percentage here. It’s still not very good, though, at only 6.7%. Even if your pool includes upset scoring, where you get bonus points for low-seeded teams, you’re probably better off staying away from the 15 line.
No. 14 seeds: New Mexico State
New Mexico State over Baylor is one you could consider if you were dying to pick a monster upset. The Aggies have 15.3% odds to knock off No. 3 seed Baylor. There’s not great value here, but we’re now within the realm of possibility.
No. 13 seeds: Vermont
The Vermont Catamounts top the group of 13 seeds with a 20.2% chance to beat the Purdue Boilermakers. No single 13 seed is favored to beat their No. 4 opponent, but we probably have better than a coinflip odds of one of them winning. Of that group the most likely winner is Vermont. Still, proceed with caution here.