MLB Predictions 2017: Who The Experts Are Picking in the American League
By Matt Snyder
Taking a look at MLB predictions from national baseball experts from around the internet ahead of baseball’s Opening Day in 2017.
Opening day is finally here and hope abounds for all 30 fan bases around major league baseball. It’s the time of year when any MLB prediction can seem to come true if you simply wish hard enough. Our own Detroit Tigers are hoping to make (what looks to be) one final push for the postseason before they have to build for the future.
Here’s a look at who the national baseball experts are picking in the American League this season.
AL Central
ESPN surveyed 35 of their baseball insiders for their predictions post, and every single one of them picked the Cleveland Indians. Sports Illustrated was also eight for eight in picking the Indians to top the division, and Yahoo Sports saw all six of their writers pick Cleveland as well.
FanGraphs was the big outlier in this division. They collected predictions from 54 staff members and only 53 picked the Indians. One FanGraphs writer stuck his or her neck out for the Tigers!
The numbers don’t necessarily fault the writers for heavily favoring the Indians. FiveThiryEight’s mathematical model has them as the second most likely division winner in all of baseball (only the Chicago Cubs are a better bet). They give Cleveland a 63% chance of topping the standings with the Tigers checking in at 19%.
My Prediction: Cleveland Indians
I’d love for the Tigers to stick it to the Indians this year — last year’s head-to-head record was miserable — but the Indians have few reasons to regress after last season’s excellent World Series run.
AL East
The American League East predictions show more diversity than the AL Central’s did, but they experts still heavily favor one team. The Boston Red Sox were selected by 28 of the 35 ESPN experts, seven of eight Sports Illustrated experts, all six Yahoo writers, and 43 of 54 FanGraphs staff members.
The Blue Jays were the next most common pick with six selections by ESPN members, six by FanGraphs, and one by Sports Illustrated.
FiveThirtyEight’s model gives the Red Sox a 35% chance to win the AL East with the Blue Jays (24%) coming right behind in second place.
My Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox will be in a bit more trouble if they don’t get much production out of David Price and his sore elbow, but they have more overall depth and balance than anyone else in the division. Toronto’s batting lineup looks to be excellent, though, and could challenge if their rotation takes a step forward.
AL West
The AL West is probably the most wide-open division in the American League. The Houston Astros are the favorite but the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers are also getting their share of selections.
None of the sites linked above made a unanimous selection in the West, though Yahoo was close with five of six picking the Astros, but only four of eight Sports Illustrated writers agreed on Houston. The Astros also picked up 21 of 35 selections from ESPN an a surprising 49 (of 54) from FanGraphs.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros a 40% shot to win the division with the Mariners coming in at 27% (the highest percentage on any of the AL’s non-projected winners).
My Prediction: Houston Astros
The Astros floundered at times in 2016 but they have a plethora of young position players still on the upside of their respective careers and should see improvements in the starting rotation. It’s going to be a slog to get through the division, however, with only the Oakland Athletics looking like non-contenders.
AL Wild Card
Tigers fans will probably have to pin their hopes on a Wild Card berth if they hope to reach the postseason in 2017. They’ll have to claw their way in, however, as there looks to be plenty of competition for the two play-in spots in the American League.
The Blue Jays are the most popular Wild Card pick on all four of the prediction posts above with the Mariners and Rangers getting plenty of love as well. The Tigers are not a prime pick but they’re also a fairly popular choice among the non-division winners.
FiveThirtyEight’s math predicts things to be tighter than the raw vote totals indicate. The Mariners are the top Wild Card team (among non-projected winners) with a 21% chance but the Rangers (17%), Blue Jays (16%), Tigers (15%), and Yankees and Rays (13% each) close behind.
My Prediction: Blue Jays and Tigers
I’m hopeful that the Tigers starting rotation can outstrip expectations. They also should have a favorable schedule in what looks to be a relatively weak division. They’ll need to stay healthy, however, as depth concerns are real all over the diamond (J.D. Martinez beginning the season doesn’t help things).
The Toronto Blue Jays will have to fight their way through a difficult AL East, but I think they’re the best team not projected to win their division. They’re going to have to rely on their offense rather heavily, however.
Next: Tigers All-Time 25-Man Roster
The Tigers open the season on the road against the Chicago White Sox on Monday afternoon at 4:10 p.m. The game will air locally on Fox Sports Detroit.