Detroit Tigers: .500 is the worst place to be
By Matt Snyder
The Detroit Tigers have floundered around .500 for much of the season, but they’re going to need to make a buy-or-sell decision this summer as the trade deadline nears.
The Detroit Tigers have floundered around the .500 mark for much of the season, a position that represents a near worst-case scenario for the direction of the organization. The Tigers, as a franchise, are at a crossroads. The club has been committed to winning in the short-term for a dozen years now, a stretch that saw them claim four-straight division crowns and two World Series appearances.
An aging core, maxed-out payroll, and thin farm system means the club has few resources to push into the middle of the table in pursuit of the elusive World Series championship. The window of competitiveness might still be open a crack, but it’s threatening to slam shut at any moment.
Basically, the Tigers have this year to win a title before the team starts to break up. J.D. Martinez is due to hit free agency in the offseason and it appears unlikely that the Tigers have the funds available to re-sign him. Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera will make the transition to their late-thirties in the next year or so. Both superstars remain productive, but they’re becoming less so as the years march on.
The Tigers would like this year to end in one of two places: (1) a playoff run (obviously) or (2) rebuild mode.
Martinez, at the very least, needs to be dealt with. He would be a key cog for the team if they hope to make a run at the postseason, but he’d also be their number one trade chip at the deadline. This is where .500 becomes a big problem. They’re not out of the race, but they’re not in it either. The 21-21 Tigers are in 10th place in the American League.
One good week is all they need to take the lead in the division, but that one good week might never come. As long as they’re hovering around .500 they could convince themselves that competitiveness is one calendar turn away but that could lead to the disaster scenario: sitting home in October with expiring contracts on your their hands.
The Tigers would get a compensation draft pick if Martinez walks in free agency, but that would be a pittance compared to a prospect haul they could pull down this summer. The Tigers got Michael Fulmer (and Luis Cessa, who they flipped as part of the Justin Wilson trade) for Yoenis Cespedes two summers ago. A similar return could be had for Martinez.
Starting the selloff — which would begin with Martinez and probably also include Ian Kinsler at the very least — might not be prudent at the moment, but the club needs to do more then .500 to convince us that they’re in the race for real. The mirage of .500 shouldn’t be enough to keep the club intact. If this is all they Tigers have this season, it’s time to start to break them up.
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