Why Matthew Stafford is worth every last cent of his new contract
By Bruce Walker
Matthew Stafford just signed a contract extension that made him the highest paid player in NFL history. Now comes the $135 million question: Is he worth it?
Matthew Stafford’s new contract dominated the headlines, airwaves, and Twitterverse as soon as it was reported last week. A sizable volume of media and fan opinion was actually negative and revolved around the premise that Stafford has not earned that lucrative contract because he has not won a playoff game.
They were all wrong. Well, no, they were right about him not winning a playoff game. They were wrong to blame Stafford for not winning one. (If this pertains to you—and you know who you are—I mean no offense. Just read on to become enlightened.)
There is a lot of information here. If you can follow, I promise that my above point will be supported satisfactorily. With facts and props. And who doesn’t like graphs and charts?
I chose the last six years for this study because we are talking about Matthew Stafford after all. He was drafted in 2009 but his first two years were incomplete due to injuries. He has played under center almost without missing a snap since then. From the start of the 2011 season, Stafford’s durability has actually been very impressive. During this time period, the Detroit Lions have gone to the playoffs three out of the six years yet have zero wins.
Just don’t put all of this on Stafford.
All of the following data came from NFL.com. All of the graphs and spreadsheets are mine.
We will focus on two aspects of team success in the NFL that have little or nothing to do with the quarterback but have a great deal to do with winning. Especially with achieving those wins in the playoffs, when losses eliminate participants.
The team that excels at these two components of their game has an overwhelming likelihood of success in the postseason. To put it simply, an astonishing 87% of the time, the teams that were in the top ten of both of these two categories made the playoffs! And 85% won at least their first playoff game! That is how important these criteria are.
It did not matter the who the quarterback was or what he had for a quarterback rating. The turnover ratio was irrelevant. So was the time of possession, penalties and home field advantage.
Those things surely contributed to the victories and losses but are not an element of consideration in this study. We are simply looking at arguably the two most important areas that a football team can perfect to ensure success. So what are they?
A run game.
A defense.
I didn’t say that it was some big secret. I said that it is important. But it might surprise you to see just how impactful those elements are.
Here is what the Detroit Lions have accomplished in their running game during the relevant time period of 2011-2016:
2013 was the Lions best year, relatively speaking. It almost looks impressive.
Now, compare that to the Best, the Worst and the Top Ten in the NFL during that same time period:
You will see that the Lions never came close to the top ten NFL teams in terms of rushing yards. 2015 actually saw Detroit in last place. 2013 was the Lions best year at 112 yards/game but was also the best year out of the six for the tenth best rushing team, the Kansas City Chiefs that year. The poorest top ten showing was the Carolina Panthers at 113.4 yards/game in 2016.
It is safe to say that Matthew Stafford has never had the benefit of a quality running game.
Next, look at how the top ten rushing teams from each year fared in making the postseason.
Teams in red made the playoffs and teams in black did not.
Notice that never have less than 50% (overall, 53%) made the playoffs.
The next critical criteria that I looked at was the points allowed by defenses. This is what the Lions have looked like over the past six years.
Obviously, the lower, the better for this ranking. The Lions finished 2014 with the third best scoring defense (points allowed) in the NFL. They yielded a total of 282 points that year. Now, compare that to the Best, the Worst and the Top Ten in the NFL during that same time period:
You will see that only 2014 saw Detroit broach the top ten. They had a balanced defense that year, ranking fifth in rushing touchdowns and 11th in receiving touchdowns yielded. The first place Seattle Seahawks gave up the same number of rushing touchdowns as Detroit but gave up six fewer receiving scores.
Next, look at how the top ten defensive teams from each year affected that teams ability to make the playoffs. Overall, 67% of the top ten defensive teams made the playoffs!
Teams in RED made the playoffs. Teams in BLACK went home after the regular season.
In 2015, nine out of ten teams that made this list went to the playoffs!
Now it gets more interesting. Combine these two lists and see what teams made both lists and how that affected their playoff hopes: The teams that made both top ten lists in the same year are highlighted in yellow.
The teams that made the playoffs are in RED.
Top ten rushing teams made the playoffs pretty consistently at a rate of just over 50%.
Top ten defenses had a success rate that varied between 50% and 90%.
Remember that in every year, only 37.5% of available teams actually make it into the postseason.
What does this mean? Teams that made both lists had an 87% chance of making the playoffs. They had 85% chance of winning their first playoff game. One statistical anomaly is that in 2015, two teams that made both lists played each other (Seattle vs. Minnesota) so one of them had to lose. If you remove that game in it’s entirety, the resulting success of first-playoff-game-win percentage would be an even higher 89% winning statistic.
But how does this tie into Matthew Stafford’s contract? Look at the quarterbacks that won these playoff games.
Here is a list of quarterbacks that:
(1) Played on teams that made both lists,
Again, Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota Vikings lost to the Seattle Seahawks 10-9 in 2015. Close game. Good defenses. Take out that game and the success ratio of quarterbacks playing on teams that made both top ten lists climbs to 88.9%.
If you have both a top ten run offense and a top ten scoring defense, you will almost certainly be able to win a playoff game. If you don’t you won’t.
Seven out of twelve teams that made both lists (58.3%) have made it to the Super Bowl.
Three of those teams have won it.
Look closely again at that list of quarterbacks. How many of those quarterbacks who won a playoff game would you rather have than Matthew Stafford? How many of those playoff wins were due to the fact that their team had a stellar defense and superior running attack?
In the context of Stafford’s contract being considered too high because he has not won a playoff game, or that he has not had enough regular season success, a statistically significant portion of the responsibility actually belongs to the run game and the defense.
Late in the contest, when the game is on the line, the quarterback that is at the helm of the team makes a huge difference in the success of that team.
Matthew Stafford has 25 come-from-behind victories in his career. He is 14th on the list (tied with Tony Romo and Matt Ryan) and is the youngest active player by a sizable margin. Ryan has played a year longer than Stafford and had two last year while Stafford set an NFL record of eight wins after trailing in the fourth quarter.
The next younger quarterback on the list (by about eight months) is Russell Wilson. Wilson is tied with ten other players (interestingly, including Detroit’s own Bobby Layne) for 47th place.
Tom Brady, ten and a half years older than Stafford, is second on the list at number two and is the current active leader with 39 come-from-behind victories. He is also widely considered one of the best quarterbacks to have ever played the game, therefore makes a valid point of reference. Given the time that each has played, Brady has averaged 2.43 come-from-behind-victories per year. Stafford has averaged 3.57 per year. At this rate, if he continues on this pace and plays as long as Brady, he will have 60 such victories, completely eclipsing Peyton Manning‘s record of 45 (2.65/yr.).
Is this good or bad? The short answer is both.
The good: Stafford has been able to orchestrate last-minute victories when trailing in the fourth quarter. He has done so more frequently than any quarterback in NFL history. Other successful quarterbacks more frequently have the luxury of taking a knee in the last two minutes of a game.
The bad: This is primarily a function of having a poor defense and no impactful run game. The team is always scratching and clawing to try to stay in games.
The bottom line is that the quarterback cannot be expected to shoulder the lack of a winning record when he has neither the run game nor the defense to support those wins. More so in the playoffs. Teams that run the ball well and have good defenses win playoff games.
To Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn’s credit, he has been investing in both the run game and the defense.
The Defense: Three of this year’s first four draft picks were defensive players that have all shown flashes of promise to bolster a defense that allowed an NFL record quarterback rating of 106.5 in 2016. Last Year’s draft netted A’Shawn Robinson and Miles Killebrew, who have already made an impact and are both looking forward to much more productive sophomore campaigns.
The Run Game: Quinn also has brought in offensive line improvements through free agents T.J. Lang and Rick Wagner as well as drafted Taylor Decker, Graham Glasgow and Joe Dahl to build the offensive line.
It is clear that Stafford has not always had the tools to win games. Especially with games played in the post season. Seriously.
Next: Preseason trades show Bob Quinn’s brilliance
More often than any other quarterback in history, Stafford has emerged victorious in games when trailing late in the game. Considering the supporting cast that Matthew Stafford has played with since 2011, as well as his stellar performance when the game is on the line, his new contract is a bargain for the Detroit Lions.