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Will the Detroit Lions be able to continue to win with opportunistic defense?

By Bruce Walker

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 1: Case Keenum #7 of the Minnesota Vikings is hit while throwing the ball by defender Anthony Zettel #69 of the Detroit Lions in the first quarter of the game on October 1, 2017 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 1: Case Keenum #7 of the Minnesota Vikings is hit while throwing the ball by defender Anthony Zettel #69 of the Detroit Lions in the first quarter of the game on October 1, 2017 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /
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The Detroit Lions are 3-1 and are tied for first place in the NFC North after winning games with strategically savvy defense that relies heavily on takeaways. But is that game plan reliable and sustainable?

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – OCTOBER 1: Case Keenum #7 of the Minnesota Vikings is hit while throwing the ball by defender Anthony Zettel #69 of the Detroit Lions in the first quarter of the game on October 1, 2017 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – OCTOBER 1: Case Keenum #7 of the Minnesota Vikings is hit while throwing the ball by defender Anthony Zettel #69 of the Detroit Lions in the first quarter of the game on October 1, 2017 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

The Detroit Lions are ranked fourth in scoring allowed at 17.5 points/game.  A great deal of that success has been an impressive turnover margin. That’s the difference between giving the ball to the other team or taking it from them.

It is widely accepted that turnover margin is one of the most important factors in contributing to a win or a loss. (News Flash: the biggest factor is actually the final score.)

Take a look at what the NFL has seen as the leader in turnover ratio for each of the past 25 years. The graphs are mine. The data is from FOX Sports.

TOR
TOR /

Some years show that the best team in the NFL in this area took the ball away more than they gave it away less than one time per game. In other years, the positive ratio was as high as 1.75 times per game.

The Detroit Lions are currently at plus 2.25 turnover ratio per game.

The more important fact to know is that the past 17 turnover leaders (2000-2016) have gone on to the postseason. In fact, 22 of the past 25 years listed made the playoffs. In 2015, 2013, 2000 and 1998, the turnover leaders went on to the Super Bowl.

So, how do the Lions rank according to that list so far this season?

TOdet
TOdet /

If you extrapolate their plus-nine turnover ratio in their four games over the entire season, the Lions would end up plus 36.

That’s 28.6% better than the best team(s) in the NFL over the past 25 years!

That’s 300% of what the NFL-Best Kansas City Chiefs accomplished in 1995. It’s twice as good as those same standard-setting Chiefs did last year.

That’s crazy.

It is indeed rarefied air up there.

But is it too good? Can this rate be sustained?

Yes. Yes. And No. Or maybe.

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