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Detroit Lions: Breaking down the NFL playoff picture going into week 11

By Ash Thompson

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 1: Tahir Whitehead #59 of the Detroit Lions signals a turnover after recovering a fumble by Dalvin Cook #33 of the Minnesota Vikings in the third quarter of the game on October 1, 2017 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 1: Tahir Whitehead #59 of the Detroit Lions signals a turnover after recovering a fumble by Dalvin Cook #33 of the Minnesota Vikings in the third quarter of the game on October 1, 2017 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /
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The Detroit Lions are right in the thick of the NFC playoff race. They need help to get in but their playoff prospects are far from bleak.

Heading into week 11, the Detroit Lions are sitting just outside the wild card race and within striking distance of the NFC North lead. The battle to the finish with the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers is simple; the Lions just need to win two more games than the Vikings in the last seven, and stay even with the Packers until week 17 when the teams meet again.

The Lions face the Vikings at home and have a much easier schedule. While it is by no means automatic, the Lions are in a pretty good spot. The division title is the greatest hope for the Lions playoff prospects. The wild card is where things get convoluted and interesting.

The NFC playoff picture currently sits as follows: the Division leaders are the Philadelphia Eagles, the Los Angeles Rams, the Vikings, and the New Orleans Saints. Division leaders get into the playoffs. They also get at least their first playoff game at home. The wild card teams would currently be the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks, who have seven and six wins respectively. The Panthers beat the Lions head to head, and thus have the tiebreaker should the two teams have identical records at the end of the year.

The Lions and Seahawks do not meet in 2017. That means that the first tiebreaker between the two will be their comparative records within the NFC. That is followed by record vs. common opponents.

The Seahawks are currently 4-2 in the conference and 2-1 against teams that have played the Lions. Seattle has five more games in conference, and two games against a common Lions opponents. The Seahawks play the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football next week and face the Arizona Cardinals in week 17.

The Lions have a 4-3 record in the conference and are also 2-1 vs common opponents. Only their week 17 contest with the Green Bay Packers against common opponents with the Seahawks. Currently, the Seahawks hold a slight edge over the Lions in the wild card tiebreakers. The Lions playoff prospects are not great outside the division.

Outside looking in

Just outside the wild card position is a logjam of 5-4 teams. The Lions join the Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, and Dallas Cowboys on the outside looking in. The Atlanta Falcons beat the Lions head to head, which gives them the tiebreaker advantage between the two teams. The Lions beat the Packers in week nine. and face them again in week 17. They are in the driver’s seat against the Packers.

The Lions and Cowboys do not play this season. The Cowboys are 5-3 (Lions 4-3) in the conference and 2-2 (Lions 3-1) against common opponents. The Cowboys have only one more game against a common opponent with the Lions, who also have one game left against a shared foe. Lions fans can safely cheer against the Cowboys in every game for the remainder of the season. All of the teams they face are leaders of other divisions, AFC opponents, or teams behind the Lions in the wild card race.

The teams chasing the Lions all have a problem. They have to beat the Lions as part of their run. The Cardinals already had their chance and failed. They would have to win two more games than the Lions to get in. Behind them are two long-shot teams: The Chicago Bears and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bears and Buccaneers would have to win six of their remaining seven games to have a chance. The Lions face the Bears twice, and the Buccaneers once. The Lions have complete control over the teams behind them.

What that means for the Lions’ playoff prospects

To simplify this, the Lions need to have a better record than the Panthers or Falcons to get in. They would lose the tiebreaker with the Seahawks or Cowboys right now but are within half a game of each in the first tiebreaker, and tied or ahead in the second. The Lions need to keep winning games, as they are currently three spots, and one game back in the wild card race.

Next: Lions saving big plays for big moments

They can get one game closer to the division in head to head games, but they require help from other teams to get in. The Lions playoff prospects are not spectacular but they are right in the thick of things.

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