Detroit Lions: Breaking down the playoff picture for week 13
By Ash Thompson
The Detroit Lions hurt their playoff chances by losing the Thanksgiving match-up with the Vikings. There is still hope in Detroit, however.
The Detroit Lions‘ Thanksgiving loss to the Vikings was not unexpected. It did have the effect of lengthening the odds against the Lions playoff hopes, however. Almost all of the Lions competition for a wildcard berth won their games last week, putting the Lions in a spot where their task is now monumental. It is not impossible for the Lions to make the playoffs by any means, and their competition all have a much more difficult schedule.
The Division leaders are the Los Angeles Rams, the Philadelphia Eagles, the New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings. The Two teams currently in the wild card position are the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons. The Lions have a record of 3-1 in their division, and a 5-5 record against NFC opponents.
The Eagles can still technically not win the NFC East, but it requires them to lose the next five games and the Cowboys to win their next five games. The Eagles do not matter to the Lions anymore. The Rams play the Cardinals, Eagles, Seahawks, Titans, and 49ers out close out the year. They currently have a one-game lead on the Seahawks but the two teams play again, and Seattle holds the head to head tiebreaker. If they end up in the wildcard race, the Rams have a 5-3 (Lions 5-5) conference record and a 3-1 record against common opponents (Lions 3-2). The Rams need to lose this week against the Cardinals to even that tiebreaker up. Neither team faces another common opponent this year.
The Vikings are three games ahead of the Lions with a record of 3-1 in the Division. The Lions need the Vikings to lose at least three games to have any chance at the division. That is not going to happen. The Vikings play both wild card teams as their next two opponents and follow that with three soft games against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Green Bay Packers, and the Chicago Bears. It would be shocking for the Vikings to not win at least three of those games.
The Saints hold a two-game lead and the head to head tiebreaker over the Lions. The Lions need the Saints to drop at least three games, even if the Lions win all five. The Saints face the Panthers once, and the Falcons twice. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets round out their schedule. It is ideal for the Lions that the Saints go on a run within their division.
The Panthers hold a two-game advantage and the head to head tiebreaker advantage over the Lions. To catch up, The Lions need the Panthers to lose at least three games. The Panthers face the Saints, Vikings, Packers, Buccaneers, and Falcons in their final five games. The Falcons hold a one-game lead and the head to head tiebreaker over the Lions. The Falcons face the Vikings, Saints twice, Buccaneers, and Panthers to close out the season. The Lions need to beat, not tie, the Buccaneers final record to get in. They need the Falcons to lose at least two of those games to have a chance.
The Seahawks are still ahead of the Lions in the wild card race as well. The Seahawks have a 5-3 conference record (Lions 5-5) and a 2-2 record against common opponents (Lions 3-1). Each team plays one more game against common opponents. The Seahawks finish the year against the Eagles, Jaguars, Rams, Cowboys, and Cardinals. There are still teams that can mathematically catch the Lions from behind, but if they do the Lion will have been out of contention for weeks.
Given the jumble of teams near the bottom, it is likely that the Lins end up in a three-way tie for the wild card spot The only way the Lions can get in under these circumstances is if the teams involved are the Falcons and Seahawks with the Panthers having nosedived to close out the year, leaving two spots open. In that circumstance, the Falcons, having beaten the Lions and Seahawks get in. Then the final spot is decided by Conference record between the Seahawks and Lions. The Lions currently lose that tiebreaker but both teams play multiple games, and it is possible for the Lions to end up ahead. Any other combination of teams ends with the Lions out of the playoffs.
It is a bleak but not hopeless picture for the Lions at this point. They need some stratification to develop in the NFC South for any realistic shot to develop. If those teams split their remaining games they will likely all end up in the playoffs. The Lions need one of them to falter. Their best bet is the Falcons, who have four games left against division opponents. Most importantly the Lions just need to win.