Detroit Lions fan playoff rooting guide for Week 15
By Matt Snyder
Here’s who Detroit Lions fans should be rooting for in Week 15 of the NFL season in order to maximize the team’s playoff odds.
The Detroit Lions enter Week 15 very much alive in the NFC playoff race, but they’re going to need plenty of wins – and plenty of help – if they’re going to make back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since the mid-1990s.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s 2017 NFL Predictions, the Lions currently own a 17% chance of making the playoffs. If they win their final three games (without considering any other NFL results), that figure moves up to 56%. So the Lions control about half of their destiny; the other half will be determined by other results around the league. Here’s who Lions fans should be rooting for this week.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions – Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
Let’s start out with an easy one. Lions fans should be rooting for the Lions to beat the Bears this week. According to FiveThirtyEight again, a win would bump the team’s playoff odds from 17% to 23%. A loss to the Bears would bring the odds down to 1%.
There’s some small chance that the Lions could still make the playoffs with a 9-7 record, but that would involve nearly everyone collapsing ahead of them and going nearly winless. Barring that cataclysm, the Lions are going to have to count on winning their final three contests.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Monday, 8:30 p.m.
This game is nearly as important for the Lions as their own game is. The Falcons — thanks to a heartbreaking head-to-head win — are the team best in position to block the Lions’ bid for a Wild Card berth down the stretch. Lions fans’ second favorite team for the rest of the season will be whoever’s playing the Falcons. That’s the Buccaneers this week. A Buccaneers win (with a Lions win) would bump the odds to 34%.
I said earlier that the Lions can improve their own odds to 56% by winning their final three games. Those odds rise to 89% if the Falcons also lose their three remaining games. They finish the season by playing at New Orleans and home vs. Carolina, so an 0-3 finish isn’t completely out of the question if the get tripped up this week in Tampa.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
None of the remaining games are capable of causing huge swings in the Lions’ playoff odds, but they can gain a few more percentage points if the Rams beat the Seahawks this weekend. A Seahawks loss, combined with a Lions win and a Falcons loss, would see the Lions’ odds increase to about 39%.
A Seahawks loss this week would cap their win total at 10 for the season, meaning which means they couldn’t beat a 10-win Lions team outright without a tiebreaker. A 10-win Seahawks team could help muddy the waters with respect to Wild Card tiebreakers and take the head-to-head losses to Atlanta and/or Carolina out of play (again, we have to presume the Lions reach 10 wins if we’re going to talk about the playoffs).
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers – Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
Lions fans might have a hard time with this one, but a Packers win over the Panthers would improve their odds by a couple more percentage points (up to 42%). Green Bay is currently tied for the Lions in the standings and are battling for a Wild Card berth along side them, but, once again, if the Lions are going to make the playoffs they’re going to have to win out which means beating Green Bay on the final day of the season (thus eliminating the Packers as a threat).
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
This game won’t have much tangible effect on the Lions’ playoff odds, but it presents an interesting case. According to FiveThirtyEight a Vikings win is better for the Lions’ playoff odds overall (presumably because it helps Detroit’s strength of schedule and strength of victory which would factor into tiebreakers). According to the numbers a Vikings win would keep the Lions at 42% to make the playoffs while a Vikings loss would drop them to 40%.
On the flip side of that coin, a Vikings loss increases the odds that the Lions win the division from less than one percent to three percent (even while it decreases the Lions’ overall playoff odds).
Next: Lions: What to watch for in Week 15
The Lions can maybe gain an additional percentage point based on various other results that boost strength of schedule, strength of victory, and the like, but 43% is about their maximum playoff odds heading out of this week.