Detroit Lions: ESPN predicts 2018 win total
By Zac Snyder
ESPN is out with predictions for where Vegas will set win totals for next season. Will the Detroit Lions take a step forward or a step back in 2018?
The Detroit Lions still don’t officially have a head coach, but looking ahead to the 2018 season has already begun. Of course, Matt Patricia is unofficially in place while he finishes his run as the New England Patriots’ defensive coordinator and Jim Bob Cooter is expected to return as offensive coordinator.
That leaves some assistant coaching jobs to fill and an offseason of roster movement, but ESPN’s Bill Barnwell is already looking ahead at next season with his predictions for where Vegas will set the over/under for each team’s 2018 win total.
Where does he peg the Lions? 8 wins. Barnwell offers the following with his prediction.
"The Lions were actually a better team in 2017 than they were in 2016, according to both point differential and DVOA, but their record suffered by virtue of falling from 8-5 in one-score games to 3-4, which brought an end to Jim Caldwell’s time as coach. Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is expected to take over, but will the Lions ever develop a running game or a secondary pass rush behind franchise-tag candidate Ezekiel Ansah? Detroit also has to face a second-place schedule in the NFC, which means games against the Cowboys, Panthers and Seahawks."
While Barnwell notes a more difficult schedule, that’s the kind of thing that is notoriously difficult to judge this far from the start of the season. What look like tough games in the offseason can turn out to be much easier for a variety of reasons and the same can be said of “sure wins” that look like anything but as game week approaches.
Additionally, the Seahawks would have been on the Lions’ schedule regardless of the Lions’ finish in the standings since the NFC North will play the NFC West as part of the NFL’s normal rotation. If the Lions had finished third in the NFC North in 2017, they would have played the Redskins and Falcons instead of the Cowboys and Panthers. Easier? Maybe but that shouldn’t have had a big impact on the Lions’ overall outlook for 2018.
The bigger thing here is the number: 8 wins. That wouldn’t be such a good look coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons and the firing of Jim Caldwell. Bob Quinn made clear in firing Caldwell that the status quo wasn’t good enough and that expectations were higher.
That being said, the kind of seasons the Lions had under Caldwell since Quinn’s arrival seem like the kind of seasons good enough to keep a coach around if he’s the general manager’s guy while also leaving enough wiggle room to make a change if he’s not. In the end, Caldwell wasn’t Quinn’s guy so the change was made.
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Taking a step back to eight wins (or worse) could give Quinn a black eye, but doesn’t necessarily mean he made a mistake. Quinn is obviously looking further out than just next season but there will surely be pressure on him and his new coach to see improved results quickly.