NFL Draft 2018: Quarterback prospect compared to Matthew Stafford

Josh Allen is one of the more polarizing 2018 NFL Draft prospects but that didn’t stop Mel Kiper from comparing him to Matthew Stafford.

Mel Kiper is no stranger to headlines. He’s the original media draft expert but some might say he’s more about headlines than draft analysis these days.

Case in point, his recent strong take on Josh Allen, the polarizing quarterback prospect out of Wyoming. Not everyone is high on Allen, but he has his supporters, of which Kiper is one. That may be putting it lightly, as Kiper declared Allen his number one quarterback and gave him a comparison to Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford.

That’s a strong take considering Allen is not worthy of a first round pick for some and that Stafford signed the richest contract in NFL history prior to the start of the 2017 season. All too often teams drafting a quarterback early in a draft will be blinded by an overwhelming set of physical tools at the expense of ignoring red flags.

But drafting a quarterback primary based on his skill set doesn’t have to always be a fool’s errand. In fact, Detroit Lions fans don’t have to look far to find perhaps the best case scenario for a team banking on physical tools over on-field productions. Consider these numbers:

Josh Allen’s college stats: 56.2% comp pct, 7.8 yd/att, 44 TD, 21 INT

Matthew Stafford college stats: 57.1% comp pct, 7.8 yd/att, 51 TD, 33 INT

Rather similar, I’d say. If there was a knock on Stafford coming out of college it was that the production didn’t always match the traits. It’s a similar quandary evaluators are put in with Allen this year.

Of course there are some distinctions to be made. Stafford put up his numbers in the SEC while Allen was facing competition in the Mountain West. There is also the context of how those career numbers came about. Stafford improved statistically in each of his three seasons, topping out at 61.4% completions, 9.0 yards per attempt, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his third and final season at Georgia.

Allen’s final college season was a step back from his 2016 season that put him on the map as a draft prospect to watch. His completion percentage was similar (56.0% to 56.3%) but his average per attempt fell from 8.3 to 6.9.

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There is still a lot of time to pass between now and the draft in April but don’t expect there to be any kind of consensus reached on Josh Allen between now and then. Those looking past his warts will continue to do so and those who already see a number one quarterback will have no reason to see things differently before April. If a team does take Allen with a very high pick, they’ll be hoping any parallels to Matthew Stafford hold true as his NFL career plays out.