Detroit Red Wings: Analyzing WAR For Possible 2019 Lineup

After the free agency rush, there is a clearer picture as to what the 2019 Detroit Red Wings lineup will look like, take a more in-depth look at it below using advanced statistics to get a better handle on what this season could entail.

First and foremost, credit where credit is due, Sean Tierney of Hockey Graphs and The Athletic developed a lineup tool to calculate Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for teams based off of line combinations entered by the user. Thanks to Sean for developing this tool, which allowed this piece to be crafted, the tool can be found here. Let’s take a look at how the Detroit Red Wings measure up.

To be more specific, WAR is a stat that was created in Major League Baseball that measures all of the player’s contributions as one substantial number, over the years it has found its way into the game of hockey.

Besides WAR there are plenty of other advanced statistics that will be mentioned throughout this such as, Corsi For percentage (CF%), individual scoring chances for (iSCF), Rush Attempts, and Rebounds Created. The analytical side of the game allows for a more in-depth analysis of the game, WAR is not perfect nor are any analytics, but they tell a deeper story, which is always a good thing.

The Detroit Red Wings made some free agency additions to bring in forward Valtteri Filppula who will see an NHL roster spot open up for him, rugged defenseman Patrik Nemeth who could be a possible third pairing guy, hopefully splitting time with Jonathan Ericsson and Trevor Daley in hopes that young guns get to play, and Calvin Pickard who is an AHL addition.

Both the addition of Filppula and Nemeth come into play for the sake of this model and factor into the calculations. Something to note; however, this simulation only runs four lines of three forwards, three lines of two-defenseman, and two goalies, which means there are empty roster spots that would affect this total.

To be more precise, using the tool, I ran different scenarios with line combinations that agree with handedness (listed position) so that rotation of defensemen like Ericsson and Nemeth could be seen in the totals.

The Detroit Red Wings are coming off a rough season, they’re in a rebuild, and that is clear but is there any hope to maybe see .500 this year, this tool should help answer this question. The critical thing to remember is that analytics is not perfect, keep that in mind while following along the slides.