Detroit Red Wings: Analyzing WAR For Possible 2019 Lineup
By Tyler Kotila
With the addition of Filppula, the Detroit Red Wings allow Andreas Athanasiou to slide back to the winger position which bodes incredibly well for the analytical side of things.
- Line 1: 34% of TOI and 4.0 WAR
- Tyler Bertuzzi (LW), Dylan Larkin (C), Anthony Mantha (RW)
- Line 2: 32% of TOI and 6.5 WAR
- Taro Hirose (LW), Valtteri Filppula (C), Andreas Athanasiou (RW)
- Line 3: 22% of TOI and -2.8 WAR
- Luke Glendening (LW), Michael Rassmussen (C), Filip Zadina (RW)
- Line 4: 13% of TOI and -1.0 WAR
- Justin Abdelkader (LW), Frans Nielsen (C), Darren Helm (RW)
With this combination, the total WAR output by this grouping is 5.32 rating providing this is how they are played. The combinations are endless; hockey lines change, so these numbers are going to fluctuate based on how these players are deployed. For example, Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill may opt to go with all three trusted youngsters in Athanasiou, Larkin, Mantha together on a line which fluctuates “Line 1” down to a 3.7 WAR.
Something else that needs to be noted, for all of these numbers for the forwards and when continuing to the defenseman and goalies, it is all based on the 2018-19 season NHL stats for WAR. For Example, Hirose and Zadina’s WAR ratings are going to be a little flawed because they only played a handful of games with the NHL club this season.
As previously stated, this is not perfect but looking at the move of Filppula to Center on “Line 2” allows Athanasiou to slot as the winger which enables him to create more offense. Last season, Athanasiou posted a 45.9% CF% with a 215 iSCF alongside fourteen rush attempts and eleven rebounds created. The boost to Athanasiou’s game will be seen in things like rush attempts and eleven rebounds, playing wing will allow him to carry the puck down the boards and create space as well as shoot from the outside and crash the net (to translate those numbers into words).
Some other things that need to be taken into account, Rassmussen’s rough year even though he could come into his own this year, Hirose and Zadina’s flawed numbers, and the fact that Abdelkader and Helm are still rotting on the fourth line just lowering the WAR numbers. There’s more than just WAR, but this line combination provides us with two lines that should bode well this upcoming season.