Detroit Red Wings: Analyzing WAR For Possible 2019 Lineup
By Tyler Kotila
After covering the forwards, defenseman, and goaltenders individually, how do these numbers stack up together? What are the takeaways? As well as what to expect from the Red Wings this year.
- Forwards: 5.32 WAR
- Defenseman: 1.22 WAR
- Goalies: 4.34 WAR
- Team Total: 10:87 WAR
The bigger question that needs to be asked is, what do these numbers even mean? With a projected 10.87 WAR which (again) comes from last years statistics, this lineup would produce seventy points in the standings. For those mathematicians out there, that would be a 35-47-0 record on the year which is not stellar.
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Here’s the thing, 35-47-0 does not buy the Detroit Red Wings a playoff spot, but it shows signs of life, and this calculation is done using one lineup assuming Blashill never makes any changes to the lineup during the season. This number should fluctuate, and WAR is not perfect, but it can tell us something, the Red Wings are heading in the right direction.
For example, looking at forward Line two, adding Filppula and allowing Athanasiou does wonderful things for the overall calculations, but assuming the Detroit Red Wings see solid and consistent numbers from players like Hirose, Zadina, and Rassmussen the Team Total WAR should rise which in turn provides more wins. With flaws in the calculation due to the shortened seasons from rookies and injuries, the thirty-five wins is a good starting point for the Red Wings.
Personally, with the way the development has gone the Red Wings are looking like they could perform around .500 this year which may lead to a lower-seed playoff berth but unlikely. Playoff contention would not be the goal this year, but next year being the better year to contend, but a good building block if the Red Wings can finish at .500 this season.
Next. Three UFA's the Wings could add. dark
One thing to note on analytics for the Detroit Red Wings, they were second to last in High Danger Chances For last year, which they should look to improve upon, by trying to take more shots, create more scoring chances even if they are “great danger.” The Detroit Red Wings ranked pretty low in most of the analytical categories last season, but as fans, with the new GM in office, Blashill at the heart of development, the hope should remain strong for a better season.