Detroit Sports: Ranking Detroit’s First Round Picks by Superstar Probability

Detroit sports had a lot of promising high picks in 2019 with their pro teams, but all were in very different scenarios while on the clock. You had a nail bitter with the Detroit Lions, an obvious and well-predicted choice with the Detroit Tigers, a lucky mid-round fall to the Detroit Pistons and a 6th overall head scratcher…looking at you Detroit Red Wings.

No matter their draft-day scenario, all the teams had one common goal, draft the next star. Neither the  Detroit Lions, Pistons, Wings or Tigers have enough elite players to be selecting role players of need in the first round, Detroit sports teams in 2019 needed top-end talent. So which professional franchise’s first-round pick has the best chance to be that guy?

If we’ve learned one thing watching draft prospects throughout the years, any first-round pick and be boom or bust. So by percentage, I’ll rank the probability the four Detroit first-round draft picks have to boom. I’ll define boom by being on an all-star team (or pro bowl; NFL) within their first three seasons at the pro level.

Going from the lowest to the highest percentage of probability;

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Detroit Red Wings: Moritz Seider (6th overall) –  10%

I’m not a hockey die-hard, but I know two things for sure about the 2019 NHL draft; (1) there was a unanimous #1 prospect based on the ‘lose for Hughes’ chants I heard in the Detroit suburbs for a while. (2) most Red Wings fans were not pleased picking Seider, a defenseman, at 6th as most analysts had him as a middle-round pick.

Plus the fact that he was the only real questionable pick in a great year on paper for Detroit first-round picks, makes me pretty comfortable ranking Moritz Seider four out of four with a 10% chance.

Detroit Pistons (15th overall) Sekou Doumbouya –  25%

Sekou Doumbouya is one of two eighteen year old’s drafted in the class of 2019 Detroit first-round picks. Unlike most eighteen-year-old draft picks though, this kid was playing professional basketball in France since he was 15.

I would say Sekou has the lowest floor of the four first-rounders, but I’m banking on his upside. Make no mistake about Sekou though; this is your ultimate boom or bust pick. If it’s a hit, I think it will be a big hit, 25% chance.

Detroit Tigers (5th overall) Riley Greene –  40%

Out of the first-round class of 2019, I think Riley Greene has the highest ceiling. He was the highest-rated high school prospect in this year’s draft as a smooth swinging outfielder out of Hagerty High in Florida. Since being in the Tigers minor league system, Greene has done nothing but raise expectations, hitting .275 at 18 years old and already up to West Michigan (A).

I was very high on Greene before the draft, writing that I hoped the Tigers took him over Vanderbilt OF J.J. Bleday. You’ll hear a lot of people say Greene won’t be ready for 3-4 years. I don’t believe that I expect to see Greene by the end of next year or the beginning of the 2021 season.

Detroit Lions (8th overall) T.J. Hockenson –  70%

At this point (preseason week 3 of the rookie year) if Hockenson doesn’t make a pro bowl in his first three seasons… I’ll be surprised. Just telling you how I feel, okay.

Hockenson was the 8th overall pick and the first tight end taken top 10 in the first round since, well, since the Lions took Eric Ebron at 10th overall in 2014. Though they have a similar draft history, Ebron and Hockenson are not the same tight end. Hockenson was viewed as one of the best tight end prospects of this generation, and he’s excelled at everything he’s been asked to do so far in his first professional offseason. Hard to doubt someone when every single sign is telling you not to.

Out of the First Round Class of 2019, I think Hockenson easily has the highest floor, after all, he’s a rookie week one starter, and none of the other three are even guaranteed to make it to Detroit next season.