Counterpoint: Letting Matt Patricia go would be the right move for the Lions

Jon Poole wrote a good article for this site about why firing Matt Patricia would be a huge setback for the Lions. I respectfully disagree.

First things first, here’s Jon’s article. Please read it. It’s worth your time.  I appreciate Jon’s article, and I think it’s worth reading. I also disagree with him. The Lions aren’t going anywhere until Matt Patricia and should move on after this season ends.

A quick note with a big *however,* attached to it: wishing for someone to lose their job is rude and you shouldn’t do it. Ideally, I’m wrong, and the Lions will start winning under Matt Patricia. However, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. Unless Patricia’s team does a massive 180 down the stretch,  I don’t think he should be the Lions’ coach next year.

Were the Lions actually good under Caldwell?

All right, so Jon opens up his piece by saying:

“(Patricia) took over a team that was plastered in makeup and masquerading it’s deceiving butter-face as a playoff contender under Jim Caldwell.”

Let’s take that at face value. Jon is basically arguing that the Lions’ record (and two playoff appearances) were a facade, and the team was not as good as their record indicated.

There are metrics that measure this. pro-football-reference.com has two of them: expected wins, which is based on points scored vs. points allowed, and SRS, which is based margin of victory and strength of schedule. They’re pretty straightforward. Let’s have a look at those numbers during the Caldwell years, bearing in mind that the Lions had a positive SRS only twice from 2000-2012:

2014 (11-5, playoffs) – SRS was 2.1, ranked 5th in the NFC, 9.2 expected wins

2015 (7-9, no playoffs) – SRS was -0.2, 6th, 7 EW

2016 (9-7, playoffs) – SRS was -1.4, 13th, 7.7 EW

2017 (9-7, no playoffs) – SRS was 2.7, 7th, 8.8 EW

The Lions benefitted from an easy schedule in 2014 and won some close games they shouldn’t have won, but still deserved a playoff berth based on their SRS. The next season, those 11 wins came back to bite them, earning the team a tougher schedule, which they still turned into a playoff-worthy SRS, finishing sixth in the conference.

In 2016, a playoff year, mind you, the team took a significant step back. But they not only recovered for their third winning season in four years but had *their best SRS season* under Caldwell, picking up the same number of wins with a more difficult schedule despite missing the playoffs.

According to the numbers, the Lions were a top-six NFC team (read: deserving of a playoff berth) twice under Caldwell and played their best football in the season he got fired.

For what it’s worth, the Lions’ SRS in 2018 and 2019? -1.7 and -3.0, worse than any season under Caldwell.