Lions Counterpoint: What Should The Team Do With Matt Patricia?
By Jon Poole
The Lions didn’t beat great teams
The Lions didn’t beat great teams, functional teams and could only beat even barely above average teams once a year, don’t let Colton’s undersell fool you. He continues;
But they beat the teams they needed to. On its surface, it looks like beating the best teams would be the litmus test for success, but those games don’t tell the entire story.
Couldn’t disagree more, those games tell the entire story, especially if you want the ending of the story to be a win and trophy, or even a division title in the NFC North.
Under Caldwell, the Lions beat the teams they should have, a majority of the time, but never the teams or games they needed to. In both playoff seasons, the Lions had chances to clinched the division and lost every big game in both seasons.
In 2016 with a two-game lead in the NFC North with three to go, the Lions lost all remaining three because the NFL was mean to them and scheduled teams with winning records. Losing to Green Bay at home in the finale handing them the North, just like in 2014.
In 2017 they needed to close out the season with two wins against two teams with losing records even, and they still lost an awful game in Cincinnati week 16. Big games in 2015 was a rare occurrence as they started out 1-7.
The Lions weren’t beating the best teams, but they were beating the teams they needed to beat to get into the playoffs, which, as the Ravens, Giants, and Packers have proved, is all you need to have a chance at a Super Bowl.
I’m guessing Colton is trying to insinuate that because the Ravens in 2012 (2.9 SRS), Giants in 2007 (3.3 SRS), and the 2010 Packers (10.9 SRS) won the super bowl as low seeds, the Lions could have too?
Only one of these teams was the 6th seed in Green Bay in 2010, who also had the highest SRS in the conference at 10.9 and was also only the second team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl as a 6th seed. The Lions were the 6th seed both playoff seasons under Caldwell with an SRS of 2.1 and -1.4.
Though those most improbable in NFL history, lighting in a bottle postseason runs may have been great fun, those are the outliers, not that norm, and not a reason to be content with a football team that can’t win a big game.
For what it’s worth, the Lions’ SRS in 2018 and 2019? -1.7 and -3.0, worse than any season under Caldwell.
I think that SRS stat was written in order from (-1.7) to (-3.0) because he didn’t want to admit possible improvement under Patricia despite a similar record to last season.
Last season the Lions had a (-3.0) SRS, while this season, the Lions had an SRS of (-1.7), which is only (.03) off from the Lions 2016 SRS of (-1.4). Remember context. He is the head coach, not just on the defensive staff. They have since played a game and dropped to (-1.9).