One of the biggest remaining storylines of NBA free agency is Jalen Duren's situation. The All-Star center and the Detroit Pistons have yet to come to an agreement. The moratorium is lifted at 12:01 pm EST on Monday, which means that Duren is allowed to sign an offer sheet with any team in the league. But what should Pistons fans expect? Is Duren any more or less likely to be in Detroit next season after one week of free agency?
First of all, it's important to note that just because the moratorium is lifted and free agents can sign with their new teams doesn't mean that the Duren saga will be resolved right away. Restricted free agents can linger on the market for a long time, as we saw with the likes of Josh Giddey and Jonathan Kuminga last summer. Sure, Duren is a star, and the Pistons will presumably not want to alienate him by playing hardball with him to that degree.
Pistons should like their chances of re-signing Duren
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Detroit's chances of retaining Duren. The most likely suitor, the Los Angeles Lakers, already landed their starting center in Walker Kessler. Right now, there is no team with enough cap space to sign Duren to an offer sheet that would scare the Pistons.
The maximum contract Duren could get on the open market is a four-year, $177 million deal. That starts at $41.3 million next season. So any team willing to sign Duren to an offer sheet has to clear that cap space first.
The Brooklyn Nets and the LA Clippers are two teams that have some cap space and have a hole at center, but they only have around $20 million in room and would have to create much more through trades. This seems unlikely at this point in the offseason.
Sign-and-trade scenarios remain a possibility. Teams that are interested in Duren but don't have cap space to sign him outright can negotiate a trade with the Pistons. This is what the Lakers did to acquire Kessler from Utah.
Sacramento is considered the top suitor among the sign-and-trade possibilities. The Celtics, who were thought to be interested in Duren, just landed Mitch Robinson and re-signed Neemias Queta.
The Pistons have shown an unwillingness to engage in these trade talks. Detroit has little incentive to negotiate a sign-and-trade. If Duren can get an offer sheet, the Pistons will gladly match that, but otherwise, they are probably better off holding firm in their stance.
All signs are pointing towards Duren's return in Detroit. The question is, for what type of contract?
Since Duren's market has disappeared, there is little reason for Detroit to go over the four-year, $177 million contract for the 22-year-old center. A $40 million annual valuation always seemed like a fair price for both sides, and we could see this ending up around that, whether it's for four or five years. Perhaps the compromise would be for the Pistons to give him a player option for the fifth year.
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