The Detroit Pistons and Jalen Duren have yet to come to an agreement on a new contract. The stalemate is unlikely to end any time soon. The Pistons are holding firm in their stance of not giving Duren the 25% max, and the 22-year-old center doesn't seem willing to give them a major hometown discount.
Fred Katz of The Athletic tried to identify what a fair-value deal for Duren may look like. He asked 13 front office executives about Duren's next contract. The results revealed just how severely underrated Duren has become.
Jalen Duren has become criminally underrated after disappointing playoffs
Out of 13 executives, only two of them considered an annual average salary of over $40 million to be fair. Only one executive gave a deal that was anywhere remotely close to Duren's 25% max, which is a five-year, $239 million contract.
There were significantly more four-year contracts put forward by the executives. Six decision-makers suggested a four-year deal worth between $30 and $35 million per year. Walker Kessler's name was evoked in these discussions a few times.
That is the most egregious part of this whole conversation. The Lakers just gave up two first-round picks and two pick swaps so that they could pay Kessler a four-year, $130 million contract.
Do these executives really think that Kessler is as valuable as Duren?
Sure, Duren was bad in the playoffs. But at least he has played in them. Kessler played five games last season and has never appeared in a meaningful game in his four-year NBA career. He projects to be an elite rim protector, but he is nowhere near the offensive player Duren is. There is no evidence that he would be better than Duren in a playoff setting.
Here are two more free agent deals that were signed this summer: Trae Young landed a four-year, $212 million deal with Washington. Austin Reaves signed a four-year, $184 million deal with the Lakers. Two older guards who don't play defense, didn't play at an All-Star level last year, and play a less valuable position both got over $45 million per year, but a 22-year-old All-NBA center can't even sniff $40 million? Make that make sense.
It's not like Reaves' or Young's playoff record is better than Duren's. Young hasn't played in a playoff game in three years, and Reaves has mostly been disappointing in his postseason appearances. But Duren is the one getting penalized despite being younger.
There is also a clear overestimation of how much leverage the Pistons have in the negotiations. Sure, there is no cap space left, and there is no way for Duren to get an offer sheet. But the Pistons also desperately need Duren, as they don't have a way to replace him. Pissing Duren off after the season he just had is not an ideal situation for Detroit.
Even if the Pistons get Duren on a cheaper deal, there is a chance he will feel disrespected in these negotiations. Doesn't this increase the risk of him asking for a trade later on?
Plus, if the Pistons only offer him around $30 million per year, perhaps the qualifying offer becomes a more realistic option.
Detroit has every right to be disappointed in Duren's playoff struggles. However, they can't ignore the production he had in the regular season and the consistent development he has showcased since coming to the league because of recency bias. The rest of the league may underrate him, but the Pistons can't make that same mistake.
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