The Detroit Pistons' disastrous first-round series could have a lasting impact not only on the franchise but also on the league's landscape. On paper, yes, the Pistons' core is young and should be very good for a long time. In reality, time moves fast, and title windows can close in the blink of an eye. If the Pistons fail to mount an improbable comeback against the Orlando Magic, critical offseason decisions will determine the fate of this core.
Throughout the season, it was considered a no-brainer that the Pistons would give restricted free agent Jalen Duren whatever it took to retain him this offseason. With the ability to match any offer sheets, Duren was establishing himself as an All-Star, and the Pistons were cementing their status as a title contender. Detroit was obviously going to give Duren his maximum contract extension.
Four games into the playoffs, that is no longer the case. In fact, social media is already abuzz with rival fanbases speculating whether their team could land Duren. The Los Angeles Lakers and the L.A. Clippers stand out as teams with the cap space and the desperate need for a starting center.
Let's make one thing clear: the Pistons have a massive advantage in retaining Duren this summer and should have the desire to do so regardless of what happens in Game 5 on Wednesday.
Yet, things are a bit more complicated than that.
Jalen Duren's Pistons Future Is As Murky As Ever
Detroit can offer Duren a five-year, $287.1 million deal if he makes an All-NBA team. This would start at $49.5 million next season. If he doesn't make an All-NBA team, the Pistons can offer him a maximum of a five-year, $239 million deal, starting at $41.3 million next season. Other teams can only provide him with a maximum offer sheet of four years and $177.4 million.
The Pistons already refused to give Duren a contract extension last offseason, though. Instead, they wanted to see this season play out. This already gives Duren the feeling of being slighted by the franchise, and it is hard to envision the front office not letting the market set itself for the center this summer. If Detroit plays hardball with Duren and waits until he receives an offer sheet elsewhere, this could further alienate the 22-year-old center.
The same risk exists if the Pistons lowball Duren in negotiations. If Detroit refuses to give Duren his maximum five-year deal, the first-time All-Star could potentially take less money elsewhere, especially if that provides him an opportunity to contend for titles in LA.
The Pistons would still have the right to match those offers, but they would be left with an unhappy Duren. Would Detroit really want to pay nearly $45 million per year to a guy who feels he was disrespected in negotiations, especially after he massively disappointed in the playoffs?
That is a question only GM Trajan Langdon and ownership know the answer to. Duren is still more likely to be a Piston next season, but the chances of him leaving are significantly higher now than they were two weeks ago.
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