The Detroit Pistons are off to a red-hot start. They are on track to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference once again. They have the best defensive rating in the league through two weeks, and the offense looks much improved.
But there is one offseason signing that is leaving plenty to be desired.
John Collins was the most significant addition the Pistons made in the offseason. They gave the 29-year-old power forward a three-year, $51 million deal to be the starter, letting Tobias Harris walk in the process.
So far, this decision proved to be a mistake.
Pistons would have been better off with a different power forward
This isn't to say that re-signing Harris would have been the better option. After signing with the San Antonio Spurs, Harris has yet to make his season debut, as he is dealing with a calf injury. But he will eventually return, and it's difficult to imagine him not playing better than Collins has been performing for Detroit.
Collins was the weakest link in the Pistons' win over the Hornets on Monday night. This has been a disturbing trend over the last week. In Detroit's last four games, Collins averaged 3.5 points on 27.3% from the field in 22.5 minutes per game. He had more turnovers than assists and shot 0/6 from downtown. The Pistons lost his minutes by four despite being +43 in point differential in that span.
This is by far the least efficient stretch of Collins' career, who has a 48.2% True Shooting this season. He never gets to the free-throw line, is averaging less than one assist per game, and has a career-low usage rate.
Collins has been fine defensively, but he isn't the reason the Pistons have an elite defense. In fact, they are +4.9 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor defensively than when he is on the bench, per Cleaning the Glass.
Among Detroit's rotation players, Collins has the worst on/off rating. With him on the floor, the Pistons have a net rating of +3.8. Without him, they have a +23.5 net rating, including what would be the best offense and defense in the league by a wide margin.
Of course, this is a small sample. It's normal to have growing pains when there is a new addition to a well-organized team. But the Pistons didn't have to make this move. They added Collins, thinking that he was a clear upgrade over Harris or other available free agents.
It's not like Collins and Harris were the only power forward options on the market. Dean Wade, Rui Hachimura, and Jonathan Kuminga were all in Detroit's price range. They all signed less lucrative deals than Collins. The Pistons could have traded for a power forward like they traded for Isaiah Joe.
The good news is that they can still do that. They have the assets and the matching salary. Whether the Pistons will consider using those to replace Collins at the trade deadline remains to be seen.
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