The Detroit Lions’ 2025 season ended with disappointment, as the franchise missed the playoffs for the first time since 2022. Last season is just that, though, and there already is a sense of optimism that the Lions can get back to their winning ways in 2026.
A big reason for the optimism is their schedule, which was a hidden benefit of finishing last in the NFC North, albeit with a 9-8 record. This was confirmed on Monday when Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis deemed the Lions’ schedule the easiest in the NFL ahead of the 2026 campaign.
Sharp’s analysis takes into consideration the win totals projected by Vegas heading into the season. While most look at previous win-loss records when determining how tough a schedule is entering the year, Sharp reasoned that win totals take current information into account, such as what happened in the offseason and the draft, which gives a more accurate picture.
“While no SOS metric is perfect, using Vegas win totals provides a better indication of what teams could look like in the upcoming season than relying on the previous year’s wins,” Sharp explained. “We know that certain teams will benefit from luck factors in games next season, such as fumble recoveries, opponent field goal misses, tipped passes that result in interceptions and red zone variance. But with current projected win totals, the pure luck factors that decide games are not incorporated.”
Sharp's Schedule Analysis Another Reason to Expect Lions' 2026 Resurgence
That comment may have hit the soul of Lions fans after last season. Detroit went into the season as the NFC favorites with a projected win total of 10.5, but several things went wrong. Injuries to Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch, and Terrion Arnold weakened the defense, and the Lions struggled with two new coordinators, Kelvin Sheppard and John Morton.
Those factors dragged the Lions down in the second half of the season, ultimately eliminating them from contention with a Christmas Day loss to the Minnesota Vikings. But that game may have been a blessing in disguise, given what the Lions face this year, considering the Vikings have the 16th-best strength of schedule in Sharp’s study after jumping the Lions in the standings.
Detroit still needs to play each NFC division rival twice; however, their remaining 11 games are favorable, with the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, and Arizona Cardinals giving the Lions an easier road to contention. The AFC East and NFC South also contribute to the perfect storm, as the Buffalo Bills are the only team to hold a betting line over 10 wins in either division, giving the Lions a path to redemption.
- Arizona Cardinals: 4.5 wins
- Miami Dolphins: 4.5 wins
- New York Jets: 5.5 wins
- Tennessee Titans: 6.5 wins
- Carolina Panthers: 6.5 wins
- New York Giants 7.5 wins
- New Orleans Saints: 7.5 wins
- Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 wins
- Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 wins
- Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 wins*
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.5 wins
- New England Patriots: 9.5 wins
- Houston Texans: 9.5 wins
- Chicago Bears: 9.5 wins*
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 9.5 wins
- Buffalo Bills: 10.5 wins
- Green Bay Packers 10.5 wins*
* Plays NFC North opponent twice
Over/Unders courtesy of Sharp Football Analysis
The Lions have the same win projection of 10.5, but they've addressed some of their issues this offseason by firing Morton after one season as Detroit's OC. Kelvin Sheppard will also have a full year as defensive coordinator under his belt, and the Lions could have better health when Joseph and Branch return from their injuries.
While fans may have wanted a bigger splash this offseason, the Lions are still a better team than their 9-8 record indicated a year ago. An easier schedule could be the launch pad the team needs to get back into contention this fall.
Disclaimer: Odds are refreshed periodically and subject to change.
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