Lions Playoff Odds and Predictions for Each Possible Divisional Round Opponent
As the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Detroit Lions get to skip the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs this weekend. Their bye week means they get to sit back and rest while they wait to find out who their opponent will be in the Divisional Round.
Holding the No. 1 seed also narrows the list of potential opponents the Lions could play next week too. There is no scenario that would allow them to play either the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Eagles or No. 3 seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers next week; a matchup with either of those teams would have to come in the NFC Championship.
That leaves us with four possible opponents for the Lions to host at Ford Field: the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders or Green Bay Packers.
The way the next opponent will be determined is simple: the Lions face the lowest-seeded team remaining after the Wild Card round. So if the No. 7 Packers win on Sunday, that's who the Lions play. If the Pack lose but the No. 6 Commanders win, the Lions play the commanders. Rinse and repeat with the No. 5 Vikings and No. 4 Rams.
Who is the Lions' Most Likely Next Opponent
Taking a look at FanDuel Sportsbook's Wild Card Weekend betting odds, we can get a feel for who the Lions are most likely to face. The Packers are 4.5-point underdogs and the Commanders are 3-point underdogs, but the Vikings are 1.5-point favorites.
So with the Packers and Commanders projected to lose, the Lions' most likely opponent will be the winner of Rams-Vikings. And that is currently projected to be the Vikings. But thanks to some quirks in the math, which I'll spare you the specific details of, that doesn't actually make Minnesota the most likely opponent. That honor actually belongs to the Packers.
If we want to geek out, we can really get to the nitty-gritty. Using the odds, and removing the cut the sportsbooks take, we can come up with the following list of probabilities for the Lions' next opponent
Seed | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
4 | Rams | 19.2% |
5 | Vikings | 20.8% |
6 | Commanders | 26.9% |
7 | Packers | 33.1% |
As you can see, though, there's not a huge difference even between the least likely opponent (the Rams) and the most likely (the Packers).
Interestingly, FanDuel has also already posted betting odds for three of the four potential matchups, to give us an idea of how Detroit is expected to fare in the next round.
Lions vs. Packers Divisional Round Odds
Moneyline: DET (-220) | GB (+184)
Spread: DET -4.5 (-110) | GB +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 54.5 — Over (-105) | Under (-115)
You love to see this. The Lions' most likely matchup is a game in which they're favored by 4.5 points. For context, these odds would give them a win probability of 66.1%, and the game has an implied final score projection of 29.5 to 25 in favor of Detroit.
Lions vs. Vikings Divisional Round Odds
Moneyline: DET (-184) | MIN (+154)
Spread: DET -3.5 (-110) | MIN +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 53.5 — Over (-105) | Under (-115)
It's no surprise that a Vikings game would have the closest odds of any potential Lions opponent for the Divisional Round. But considering Detroit just blew Minnesota out 31-9 in what was almost as high-stakes as a playoff game, it's surprising to see this one projected as close as it is. The odds give Detroit a 62.2% chance of winning with an implied final score line of 28.5 to 25.
Lions vs. Rams Divisional Round Odds
Moneyline: DET (-300) | LAR (+250)
Spread: DET -6.5 (-110) | LAR +6.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 53.5 — Over (-115) | Under (-105)
The most lopsided of the three matchups we get odds for, even if they were fresh off a win over the Vikings, the Rams aren't projected to stand a chance against Detroit. These odds imply the Lions to be 72.4% to win the game, with an implied final score projection of 30 to 23.5.
FanDuel has still not released odds for a potential Commanders matchup, but this story will be updated if they do.
Looking beyond just the Divisional Round, the Lions are also +130 favorites to win the NFC as well as +320 favorites to win the Super Bowl.
More Detroit Lions news and analysis:
feed
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.