Lions Will Regret Offseason Overpay on New Veteran Addition

Detroit Lions executive vice president and general manager Brad Holmes, left, and Lions head coach Dan Campbell head off the practice field at the team's training facility in Allen Park on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024.
Detroit Lions executive vice president and general manager Brad Holmes, left, and Lions head coach Dan Campbell head off the practice field at the team's training facility in Allen Park on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024. | Eric Seals / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Detroit Lions have put themselves in a great position to win the NFC next season and they’ve done it with a homegrown roster. Stars such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and Aidan Hutchinson have built a strong foundation for Detroit and most of their spending has been used to keep that core together over the years.

Still, every team needs to take its shots in free agency, and with the Lions in a Super Bowl window, it was fair to be aggressive. An area of need existed at cornerback when Carlton Davis III left to sign with the New England Patriots, but the Lions may have been too aggressive to replace him, overpaying their top free agent addition in the process.

DJ Reed Could Be Lions Biggest Overpay in Free Agency

Reed becomes a target here because there are not a lot of options to choose from. Marcus Davenport, Avonte Maddox, and Levi Onwuzurike were signed to reasonable deals, and Kerby Joseph’s extension looks like a reasonable deal as it keeps Detroit’s options open to make another big move in the short term.

That doesn’t mean the Lions didn’t go all-in to sign Reed this offseason. A three-year, $48 million contract doesn’t sound bad for a player who was arguably the top corner on the market, but his contract is a unique one with a $4.7 million cap hit next season. That number jumps to $18.0 million in 2026 and goes back down to $8.1 million in 2027, essentially locking themselves into the 29-year-old for the next three years.

If you look at Reed’s track record, this isn’t a bad thing. Reed’s defensive grades have been in the 70s since 2019, and he earned a respectable 70.7 overall grade last season, according to Pro Football Focus. He also has held opposing passers to an 83.0 rating when targeted over his career, including a respectable 91.7 mark last season.

So why is Reed an overpay? It could come down to the Lions' other options. Davis had a solid season with the Lions after coming over in a trade with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and had a higher coverage grade of 72.1. Reed can also get grabby in his coverage with 11 penalties (two declined) last season. Davis wasn’t much better with eight penalties, but it was enough of a problem that the Lions tried to put the rules in their favor this offseason.

There’s also a good chance they could have found a suitable replacement in the draft. The Lions were high on Ohio State defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, whom they took with the 28th overall pick. But there were a few corners on the board including Kentucky’s Maxwell Hairston, Michigan’s Will Johnson, Notre Dame’s Benjamin Morrison, and Ole Miss’s Trey Amos.

Perhaps the Lions’ championship window got the best of them here and they preferred a veteran corner in the secondary. But signing Reed comes with a significant risk that could backfire on Detroit next season.

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